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JAPAN  AND 
THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE 


THE    MACMILLAN   COMPANY 

NEW  YORK   •    BOSTON   •   CHICAGO  •   DALLAS 
ATLANTA   •   SAN  FRANCISCO 

MACMILLAN  &  CO..  Limited 

LONIK3N   •    BOMBAY   •   CALCUTTA 
MELBOURNE 

THE  MACMILLAN  CO.  OP  CANADA.  Ltd. 

TORONTO 


Japan  and  the  Far  East 
Conference 


By 
Henry  W.  Taft 


^eta  f  nrfe 

THE  MACMILLAN  COMPANY 
1921 

All  righia  reserved 


PRINTED  IN  UNITED  STATES  OP  AMERICA 


Copyright,  1921 
By  the  MACMILLAN  COMPANY 


•Sst  u^  and  printed.     Published  October,  1921 


C^^ 


l^ 


FERRIS  PRINTING  COMPANY 
NEW  YORK 


Preface 

What  is  contained  in  this  little  volume  is  an  ampli- 
fication of  articles  contributed  to  the  New  York  Times 
and  Current  Opinion.  By  putting  the  substance  of 
these  articles  in  more  permanent  form  I  hope  to  con- 
tribute something  towards  stimulating  thought  in  this 
country  upon  the  subject  of  our  Far  Eastern  policy. 
Americans  are  so  preoccupied  at  home  with  their  diver- 
sified activities  that  it  is  not  easy  to  arouse  their  in- 
terest in  foreign  affairs;  and  this  is  notably  so  with 
reference  to  Asia.  The  approaching  conference  in 
Washington  will  afford  an  opportunity  for  presenting 
to  the  American  people  in  an  authoritative  way  con- 
ditions in  Far  Eastern  countries.  Presumably  the 
facts  will  be  gathered  in  a  comprehensive  and  scien- 
tific manner  and  there  will  be  collated  for  the  guidance 
of  the  participants  in  the  conference,  valuable  data  con- 
cerning the  social,  ethnological,  political,  economic  and 
industrial  conditions  in  the  Oriental  countries,  and  par- 
ticularly in  China  and  Japan.  Whatever  may  be  the 
definitive  results  of  the  conference,  such  an  investiga- 
tion ought  to  do  much  to  stabilize  our  Far  Eastern 
policy;  and  it  must  inevitably  advance  the  interests  of 
mankind. 

H.  W.  T. 
October  10,  1921. 

464011 


CONTENTS 

PAGE 

Japan's  Attitude  -------  7 

A  Look  Forward — General    -        -        -        -        -  14 

The  Dominance  of  Japan  in  the  East   -        -        -  19 

China's  Position  in  the  East         -        -        -        -  21 

Japan's  Progress  as  a  Modern  Nation  -        -        -  27 

Misunderstanding  of  the  Japanese        -        -        -  34 

The  Lansing-Ishii  Agreement        -        -        -        -  41 

Japan's  Imperialism     ------  44 

Our  Interest  in  Dealing  With  Far  East  Questions  48 

Immigration  and  the  California  Land  Question     -  51 
Shantung     --------62 

The  Improbability  of  War    -        -        -    '    -        -  71 

Necessity  for  Territorial  Expansion      -        -        -  74 


JAPAN'S  ATTITUDE 

The  foreign  policy  of  the  United  States  with  refer- 
ence to  Oriental  matters  must  in  the  last  analysis 
depend  upon  our  relations  with  Japan.  If  Japan  had 
grown  to  be  a  world  power  before  America  and  the 
European  powers  had  acquired  "spheres  of  influence" 
on  the  Asiatic  continent  she  might  have  established  an 
effective  Monroe  Doctrine  for  the  Orient,  declaring 
that  attempts  to  impair  the  territorial  integrity  or  to 
disturb  the  political  institutions  of  China  or  any  other 
Asiatic  nation,  would  be  regarded  as  an  unfriendly  act. 
But  Japan  emerged  too  late  from  the  condition  of  a 
hermit  nation,  and  remained  too  long  subject  to  Samurai 
traditions  and  militaristic  influences,  to  justify  her  in 
asserting,  as  the  United  States  asserted  with  reference 
to  the  American  continent,  that  the  extension  in  Asia 
of  European  systems  would  constitute  a  menace  to  her 
national  life  and  her  governmental  institutions.  Be- 
fore her  military  strength  had  been  demonstrated  by 
the  Chinese  and  Russian  wars  and  before  her  political 
system  had  begun  to  assume  the  character  of  a  modern 
representative  government,  England,  France,  Russia 
and  the  United  States  had  acquired  interests  in  the  Far 
East  which  made  them  factors  which  could  not  be  ex- 

7 


^  '.JAPAN    AND    THE    FAR    EAST    CONFERENCE 


eluded  by  the  delayed  assertion  or  the  temporary  accept- 
ance of  such  an  imperfect  imitation  of  the  Monroe 
Doctrine  as  the  Lansing-Ishii  agreement.  And  so  it 
happens  that  no  great  international  policy  can  be  in- 
augurated in  the  Far  East  without  taking  account  of 
the  interests  of  the  western  nations  I  have  mentioned, 
although,  for  obvious  reasons,  Russia's  assumption  of 
the  role  of  an  International  Pariah  must  exclude  her 
from  present  calculations.  But  it  is  equally  true  that 
so  far  as  the  potentiality  of  strictly  Asiatic  nations  is 
concerned  there  is  none  of  them  except  Japan  that  need 
be  considered  in  establishing  international  equilibrium. 
A  settlement  with  Japan  of  Far  East  and  Pacific  ques- 
tions means  to  all  intents  and  purposes  a  settlement  of 
the  destinies  of  all  the  peoples  of  the  Orient,  although, 
perhaps,  this  generalization  ought  to  be  qualified  by 
the  statement  that  such  a  settlement  cannot  be  perman- 
ent if  it  does  not  make  just  provision  for  the  welfare 
and  the  free  development  of  the  vast  populations  that 
inhabit  the  Asiatic  continent,  however  impotent  they 
may  be  in  the  national  and  military  sense. 

It  is  this  dominant  position  of  Japan  in  the  East 
that  makes  the  International  Conference  recently  called 
by  President  Harding  of  historical  importance. 
Whether  or  not  we  differ  with  the  statement  of  the 
State  Department,  made  by  direction  of  the  President, 
that  "limitation  of  armaments,"  the  primary  purpose 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAE  EAST  CONFERENCE      9 

of  the  conference,  "has  a  close  relation  to  the  Pacific 
and  Far  Eastern  problems,"  those  who  believe  that  a 
better  understanding  of  Far  Eastern  questions  as  a 
basis  for  a  more  satisfactory  international  status  than 
now  exists  is  necessary,  will  rejoice  that  at  last  we  are 
seriously  to  undertake  "the  consideration  of  all  matters 
bearing  upon  their  (i.  e.,  Far  Eastern  problems)  solu- 
tion, with  a  view  to  reaching  a  common  understanding 
with  respect  to  principles  and  policy  in  the  Far  East." 
(Statement  of  the  State  Department). 

It  is,  of  course,  right  that  China  should  be  invited 
"to  take  part  in  the  discussion  relating  to  Far  Eastern 
questions."  But  representations  by  the  present  Peking 
government  can  hardly  have  much  weight  in  view  of 
its  insignificance  as  a  political  agency.  Indeed,  one  of 
the  chief  difficulties  the  conference  will  encounter  in 
dealing  with  Chinese  affairs,  will  be  that  the  Peking 
government,  politically  speaking,  is  not  representative 
of  the  Chinese  people  and  remains  in  nominal  power 
solely  through  the  tolerance  of  military  governors  of 
the  provinces  who  are  content  to  have  a  "show"  govern- 
mental establishment  in  Peking  while  they  enjoy  real 
power  as  rulers  of  the  people.  In  view  of  this  situation 
it  is  not  surprising  that  the  Constitutionalist  Govern- 
ment at  Canton,  a  revolutionary  organization,  accord- 
ing to  our  ideas  of  government,  headed  by  Dr.  Sun  Yat 
Sen,  has  instructed  its  representative  in  Washington 


10      JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE 

to  inform  the  American  Government  that  the  Peking 
government  is  no  longer  capable  of  representing  China 
and  that  it  is  not  qualified  to  send  a  delegate  to  the 
conference,  but  that  the  South  China  government  should 
be  represented.  In  support  of  its  claims  it  further 
continues  to  assert  that  the  Peking  government  is 
bankrupt  and  politically  deserted  and  that  the  Chinese 
people  are  demanding  that  its  recognition  as  the  gov- 
ernment of  the  nations  be  withdrawn  by  foreign  nations. 

One  who  has  discussed  Far  East  questions  with 
leaders  of  thought  and  statesmen  in  Japan  (particu- 
larly in  the  Japanese  environment)  will  not  be  surprised 
at  the  initial  hesitation  of  the  Japanese  government  to 
join  the  conference  without  some  definition  of  the  sub- 
jects and  scope  of  the  proposed  discussions.  This  is  due 
to  a  caution  or  reserve  in  dealing  with  international 
affairs,  attributable  to  causes  which  I  will  refer  to  later. 
But  I  am  satisfied  that  it  will  yield  to  the  logic  of  the 
situation  and  that  when  the  conference  shall  have  ended 
there  will  be  no  basis  for  reasonable  complaint  that 
Japan  has  not  at  least  discussed  freely  all  Far  East 
and  Pacific  questions,  even  though  she  may  by  her  veto 
prevent  what  she  regards  as  definitive  action  detri- 
mental to  her  sovereign  rights  or  an  offense  to  her 
national  dignity. 

I  remember  that  in  a  six  day  conference  in  which  I 
participated  in  Tokio  in  1920,  with  leading  Japanese 


JAPAN    AND    THE    FAR    EAST    CONFERENCE  11 

publicists,  statesmen,  journalists  and  financiers,  a  sug- 
gestion that  Shantung.be  made  a  part  of  the  agenda 
was  met  with  the  objection  that  there  was  no  Shantung 
question ; — that  it  was  a  fait  accompli  by  virtue  of  the 
Versailles  Treaty.  But  the  objection  quickly  yielded  to 
the  suggestion  that  as  the  conference  was  designed 
principally  to  improve  relations  between  the  two  coun- 
tries, and  as  the  people  of  the  United  States  believed 
that  there  was  a  Shantung  question,  an  omission  to  dis- 
cuss it  would  be  unfortunate.  And  I  hope  that  similar 
counsels  will  prevail  in  the  Far  East  Conference. 
Underlying  some  of  these  questions  is  the  principle 
already  asserted  by  Mr.  Hughes  in  his  Yap  communi- 
cation, viz:  that  as  one  of  the  allied  and  associated 
powers,  a  disposition  of  territory  or  rights  acquired 
as  a  result  of  the  war,  cannot  be  made  without  our 
consent,  and  especially  where,  as  in  the  case  of  Yap, 
the  territory  can  reasonably  be  regarded  as  within  the 
range  of  our  influence  as  a  Pacific  power.  This  princ- 
iple afi^ects,  in  a  lesser  degree,  the  Shantung  question, 
although  our  primary  interest  there  relates  to  the  "open 
door"  in  China,  while  a  secondary  consideration  is 
based  on  our  adherence  to  the  principle  that  helpless 
China  should  not  be  despoiled  of  her  territory.  But  as 
I  shall  show  later,  Japan  ought  to  welcome  an  oppor- 
tunity for  settling  the  Shantung  question  in  some 
authoritative  way.     She  has  repeatedly  evinced  to  the 


IS     JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFEEENCE 

Chinese  government  a  desire  to  negotiate  a  settlement, 
but  has,  as  yet,  succeeded  in  getting  no  definite  response. 
A  discussion  in  the  conference  and  an  understanding 
by  the  conferring  nations  will  no  doubt  lead  to  a  solu- 
tion which  will  be  to  Japan's  advantage  without  any 
impairment  of  her  sovereignty,  particularly  as  she 
starts  with  the  enormous  advantage  of  an  award  under 
the  Versailles  Treaty,  assented  to  by  England,  France, 
Italy  and  Germany,  of  all  Germany's  rights  in  Kiao 
Chow  and  the  Shantung  Peninsula. 

There  is  a  line,  however,  beyond  which  Japan's 
national  rights  and  dignity  will  not  permit  her  to  go. 
Thus  she  will  be  justified  in  refusing  to  discuss  Kiorea 
or  Formosa.  Both  these  territories  have  become  con- 
stituent parts  of  the  Japanese  Empire,  and  the  fact 
that  there  may  be  disturbances  in  parts  of  Korea,  and 
even  among  some  Koreans  aspirations  for  independ- 
ence, these  are  clearly  domestic  questions  which  Japan 
will  decline  to  discuss. 

To  a  suggestion  that  Shantung  should  be  discussed, 
some  Japanese  newspapers  have  "countered"  by  sug- 
gesting that  the  California  land  laws  and  immigration 
in  general  should  be  discussed.  Again  the  matter  of 
racial  equality  has  also  been  brought  up.  But  Japan 
will  not  seriously  contend  in  the  conference  or  elsewhere 
that  the  United  States,  for  the  protection  of  its  own 
people,  may  not  absolutely  exclude  Oriental  races,  or 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAE  EAST  CONFERENCE     13 

that  discrimination  may  not  be  made  against  those 
races  in  laws  establishing  qualifications  for  citizenship. 
Japan  herself  is  forced  to  adopt  an  exclusion  policy 
against  China.  These  are  so  clearly  matters  affecting 
Japan  and  the  United  States  alone  that  I  doubt 
whether  a  way  will  be  found  for  even  their  discussion 
at  a  conference  seeking  to  reach  a  "common  under- 
standing with  respect  to  principles  and  policy  in  the 
Far  East."  It  would  be  unwise  for  Japan  again  to 
press  the  subject  of  "racial  equality."  It  would  surely 
meet  the  same  fate  as  at  Versailles  and  a  solution  of 
the  insoluble  question  would  be  just  as  far  away  as 
possible. 

The  prospective  conference  makes  it  timely  to  con- 
sider a  variety  of  Oriental  questions  of  interest  to 
America  and  Japan. 


A  LOOK  FORWARD— GENERAL 

Social,  industrial  and  political  developments  among 
the  vast  populations  of  the  Far  East  foreshadow  an 
epoch  of  world  wide  importance.  The  historian  of  the 
future  will  become  increasingly  occupied  in  interpret- 
ing the  changing  phases  of  the  process  by  which  the 
new  order  will  be  super-imposed  upon  and  will  sub- 
merge the  old.  Will  a  culture  emerge  based  upon  the 
model  of  Western  or  Christian  civIKzation,  or  will  there 
be  a  recrudescence  of  the  wonderful  systems  which 
existed  in  India  and  China  thousands  of  years  ago? 
Is  there  anything  in  the  recent  trend  of  history  which 
suggests  an  answer  to  this  question?  We  of  the  Occi- 
dental races  believe  that  the  civilization  which  has  grown 
up  during  the  Christian  era  has  brought  the  human 
race  to  the  most  advanced  stage  of  development  record- 
ed in  history.  What  we  call  Western  civilization  has 
thrived  in  its  most  perfect  flower  upon  the  continent  of 
Europe;  but  it  is  now  staggering  under  the  grievous 
wounds  inflicted  by  the  great  war,  if,  indeed,  it  had  not 
before  that  cataclysm  shown  signs  of  decay;  and  if 
we  could  conceive  of  Europe  completely  detached  from 
the  rest  of  the  world,  it  would  require  no  great  pro- 
phetic power  to  predict  an  end  of  its  once  perfect  cul- 

14 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAE  EAST  CONFERENCE      15 

ture.  While  she  is  tottering  to  her  feet,  it  is  fairly 
clear  that  the  process  of  disintegration  can  be  stayed 
only  by  the  moral,  material  and  political  support  and 
inspiration  received  from  America. 

The  people  of  the  United  States  have  not  advanced 
in  culture  to  the  highest  point  heretofore  reached  by 
the  European  nations; —  but  we  have  gone  far.  And 
while  in  the  development  of  our  political  institutions 
for  the  creation  and  preservation  of  those  rights  and 
privileges  connoted  under  the  term  of  civil  liberty,  with 
their  reciprocal  obligations,  and  in  the  cultivation  of 
the  moral  and  intellectual  qualities  of  our  people,  we 
have  made  a  notable  advance  and  have  furnished  models 
for  the  rest  of  the  world,  our  national  consciousness  is 
still  lacking  in  some  of  those  things  which  develop  only 
in  maturity  and  under  the  influence  of  traditions  cen- 
turies old.  We  have  the  loftiest  aspirations  and  the 
highest  ideals.  In  the  value  of  our  resources  we  are 
the  richest,  in  the  vigor,  inventiveness,  resourcefulness 
and  potentiality  of  our  people  we  are  the  most  power- 
ful, from  the  disinterestedness  of  our  idealism  we  are 
the  most  influential,  and  in  our  conception  of  the  bless- 
ings of  representative  institutions  we  are  the  most 
advanced,  nation  of  the  world.  And  while  we  have  not 
reached  the  stage  of  development  in  some  directions 
attained  by  the  older  European  nations,  it  is  in  Amer- 
ica that  Christian  civilization  is  sometime  to  reach  its 


16     JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONEERENCE 

farthest  point  of  advance ;  and  when  it  does,  the  inevit- 
able swing  of  its  influence  will  be  to  the  west  and  will 
affect  the  myriads  of  people  of  the  Orient. 

Bishop  Berkeley's  beautiful  and  prophetic  words  of 
two  hundred  years  ago  may  yet  find  application  in  the 
Far  East: 

There  shall  be  sung  another  golden  age, 
The  rise  of  empire  and  of  arts, 
The  good  and  great  inspiring  epic  rage. 
The  wisest  heads  and  noblest  hearts. 

Not  such  as  Europe  breeds  in  her  decay ; 
Such  as  she  bred  when  fresh  and  young. 
When  heavenly  flame  did  animate  her  clay, 
By  future  poets  shall  be  sung. 

Westward  the  course  of  empire  takes  its  way ; 
The  first  four  acts  already  past, 
A!  fifth  shall  close  the  Drama  with  the  Day : 
Time's  noblest  off^spring  is  the  last. 

And  who  can  say  that  empire  shall  not  continue  its 
course  beyond  the  point  where  in  mid-Pacific  the  west 
becomes  the  east,  and  shall  not  awaken  the  five  hundred 
millions  of  people  in  Northern  Asia  to  "another  golden 
age".? 


i 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFEEENCE     17 

Historically,  it  is  of  entrancing  interest  to  dwell  upon 
the  amazing  development  centuries  before  the  Christian 
era  of  civilization  in  the  countries  of  the  Orient.  We 
gaze  upon  it  with  wonder  and  admiration.  After  its 
own  model  it  did  not  fall  short  of  the  perfection 
achieved  later  by  western  nations  in  their  cultural 
development.  But  it  has  long  been  evident  that  under 
modern  conditions  the  outworn  customs  and  pursuits 
of  ancient  days  are  placing  fetters  upon  the  Oriental 
nations  which  have  forced  them  to  look  to  the  west  to 
save  themselves  from  utter  decadence  of  their  national 
life.  Oriental  civilization  in  the  historical  sense  is 
doomed.  Its  institutions  cannot  be  rehabilitated.  It 
must  be  superseded  by  some  form  of  civilization  based 
upon  the  institutions  of  the  western  nations.  Philo- 
sophers and  statesmen  of  the  Orient  have  long  been 
conscious  that  this  development  was  inevitable. 

What  does  this  mean  for  the  United  States? 

The  cable,  the  wireless  and  the  fast  steamship  service 
have  made  communication  with  Asia  easier  than  among 
the  original  thirteen  states  when  the  Union  was  created. 
Our  two  thousand  miles  of  western  sea-coast  fronts 
that  of  Asia  with  a  barrier  easily  overcome  by  the 
devices  of  modern  arts  and  sciences.  Commercial  inter- 
dependence has  already  assumed  vast  proportions. 
Asiatic  nations  are  not  seeking  to  impose  upon  us  Orien- 
tal ideas  and  customs  but,  on  the  contrary,  they  are  con- 


18      JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE 

sclously  submitting  themselves  to  the  influences  of 
western  civilization,  all  for  the  purpose  of  adapting  our 
institutions  to  their  national  needs  and  implanting  them 
in  the  Orient.  The  march  of  progress  will  in  the  course 
of  centuries  bring  the  nations  of  the  East  into  the  fam- 
ily of  those  nations  whose  inspiration  and  national  con- 
sciousness is  founded  in  the  principles  of  western  Chris- 
tian civilization. 


THE  DOMINANCE  OF  JAPAN  IN  THE  EAST 

Nearly  one  thousand  millions  of  people  live  in  India, 
Japan,  China  and  the  other  countries  of  Eastern  Asia. 
A  deterioration  of  their  national  character  without  the 
substitution  of  the  stabilizing  elements  of  the  institu- 
tions of  our  western  civilization,  would  be  a  calamity. 
The  Japanese  are  the  only  Oriental  people  that  have 
the  prospect  in  the  near  future  of  creating  a  progres- 
sive self-governing  state.  India  and  the  other  British 
possesions  in  the  East,  the  Dutch  Islands,  the  Philip- 
pines, China,  Manchuria,  Mongolia,  Siberia,  with  their 
vast  aggregate  population,  are  subject  nations.  The 
art  of  self-government  has  made  little  progress  among 
them,  and  their  people  are  in  a  backward  state  of 
development.  Hundreds  of  millions  of  people  in  India 
are  held  together  and  saved  from  probable  anarchy  by 
the  helpful  control  of  Western  powers;  but  the  East 
Indians  are  dependent  races,  even  though  they  are  en- 
joying some  of  the  benefits  of  Western  civilization,  and 
are  being  saved  under  the  British  rule  from  civil  strife, 
and  probably  from  greater  desolation  by  famine  and 
pestilence.  The  Philippines,  if  we  were  to  release  our 
hold  upon  them,  would  drift  no  man  knows  whither. 
The  conditions  in  Siberia  are  little  better  than  anarchy. 

19 


20      JAPAN  AND  THE  ¥AR    EAST  CON^FERENCE 

China  as  a  unified  nation,  on  the  model  of  the  modern 
state,  does  not  exist.  Japan  alone  of  the  Oriental 
nations  maintains  a  government  representative  of  her 
people  and  is  pursuing  the  arts  of  civilization  under  its 
effective  protection.  It  is  a  serious  question  for  the 
people  of  the  United  States  to  ponder,  and  the  coming 
International  Conference  will  afford  a  fortunate  oppor- 
tunity for  considering,  whether,  with  our  ideas  of  the 
advantages  of  self-government,  of  industrial  progress, 
of  law  and  order  and  of  international  responsibility, 
we  ought  to  assume  to  interpose  obstacles  to  Japanese 
activities  in  the  East  which  are  made  necessary  by 
Japan's  natural  and  economic  and  industrial  growth 
and  the  demands  of  her  people  for  food,  raw  materials 
and  the  opportunities  for  self-support.  The  question 
cannot  be  disposed  of  by  broad  and  dogmatic  denuncia- 
tion of  Japan's  imperialistic  and  militaristic  tendencies. 
We  must,  in  our  own  interest,  and  the  Conference 
should  in  the  wider  interests  of  modern  civilization,  give 
to  these  subjects  the  attention  and  expend  upon  them 
the  sympathy  which  their  enormous  importance  de- 
mands. 


CHINA'S  POSITION  IN  THE  EAST 

Much  is  said  about  China  as  the  ultimate  hope  of 
the  East;  and  many  who  justly  admire  the  moral  and 
intellectual  qualities  of  individual  Chinamen,  particu- 
larly those  of  the  educated  classes,  are  always  ready 
to  protest  against  any  action  on  the  part  of  Japan 
which  savors  of  an  attempt  at  aggrandizement  at  the 
expense  of  China.  But  China  has  not  yet  become  in 
the  modern  sense  an  autonomous  state. 

In  spite  of  the  extraordinary  development  among 
her  intelligent  classes  of  a  national  consciousness,  the 
Chinese  nation  is  impotent  single-handed  to  resist  ex- 
ternal pressure  tending  to  impair  its  territorial  integ- 
rity and  its  national  .sovereignty.  Since  it  has  become 
a  republic  and  has  abandoned  many  anachronisms  in 
her  social,  economic  and  political  life,  such  as  the  out- 
worn practice  of  requiring  erudite  classical  knowledge 
as  a  qualification  for  public  office,  great  progress  has 
been  made,  if  not  in  administration,  at  least  in  a  recog- 
nition of  the  necessity  for  adopting  methods  prevailing 
in  other  countries  of  the  world  in  education,  economics 
and  government.  Every  observant  Westerner  who 
visits  China  is  impressed  by  the  enthusiasm  and  high 
intelligence  of  the  educated  classes,  and  particularly 

21 


22      JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFEEENCE 

of  the  bodies  of  students,  who  appear  to  be  among  the 
principal  leaders  in  the  movement  for  the  moral,  econo- 
mic and  political  regeneration  of  their  country.  If 
these  classes  of  men  and  women  of  modern  China  were 
representative  of  its  population  of  four  hundred  mil- 
lions, the  chance  of  creating  a  unified  national  spirit 
and  introducing  into  the  psychology  of  the  great 
masses  of  the  people  the  concept  of  patriotism  and 
nationality  which  exists  in  a  high  degree  in  western 
nations,  the  outlook  would  be  indeed  encouraging. 

But  how  long  is  this  going  to  take? 

The  spirit  of  modern  progress  has  not  permeated 
more  than  a  very  small  percentage  of  the  Chinese  pop- 
ulation. The  great  mass  of  the  people  in  the  inland 
cities,  the  small  villages  and  the  agricultural  districts, 
have  neither  knowledge  of  nor  interest  in  measures 
which  are  being  contemplated  for  their  benefit  by  the 
small  minority  of  their  feUow  countrymen.  They  are 
pursuing  their  daily  tasks  and  are  living  their  daily 
lives  much  as  they  have  for  centuries.  Furthermore, 
while  some  effort  is  being  made  to  introduce  education, 
the  common  people  are  generally  illiterate,  the  contrast 
in  that  respect  with  the  same  class  in  Japan  being  very 
marked.  The  government  of  the  Chinese  people  in 
the  smaller  communities  continues  to  be  largely  patri- 
archal and  their  loyalty  to  constituted  authority  does 
not  extend  higher  than  the  Provincial  Governor.     A 


JAPAN    AND    THE    FAR    EAST    CONFERENCE  Xt5 

national  federated  government  and  the  duties  of  nation- 
al  citizenship  continue  to  be  far  beyond  the  contempla- 
tion of  the  great  mass  of  the  Chinese  people.  A  signi- 
ficant evidence  of  this  is  the  difficulty  which  any  central 
government  finds  in  attempting  to  enforce  a  system 
of  taxation  which  will  produce  an  amount  adequate  for 
its  support.  A  nation  of  four  hundred  millions  of 
inhabitants  with  a  country  having  resources  of  fabul- 
ous richness,  is  constantly  forced  to  make  loans  for  the 
payment  of  the  expenses  of  the  quite  limited  adminis- 
trative activities  of  its  central  government!  All  sorts 
of  reasons  will  be  adduced  for  this,  but  the  fact  will  still 
remain  that  whether  through  dishonesty  or  inefficiency 
or  national  impotence,  the  Peking  government  finds  the 
utmost  difficulty  in  keeping  itself  a  going  concern. 

The  government  of  Southern  China  has  for  some 
time  been  practically  independent  of  the  Peking  gov- 
ernment, although  there  is  now  no  open  rebellion. 
Southern  China  manages  its  own  affairs,  and  the  Peking 
government  tolerates  the  situation  because  it  is  power- 
less to  alter  it.  It  is  a  well-known  fact  that  most  of 
the  military  governments,  presided  over  by  veritable 
satraps,  have  usurped  power  in  the  several  provinces 
and  maintain  a  sort  of  a  feudal  governmental  estab- 
lishment, paying  little  heed  to  either  the  central  govern- 
ment or  the  other  provinces.  The  humihating  Impot- 
ence of  the  Peking  government  was   lately  exhibited 


24i  JAPAN    AND    THE    FAR    EAST    CONDFERENCE 

when  it  refused  even  to  open  negotiations  with  Japan 
concerning  the  Shantung  question,  because  it  could  not 
undertake  to  make  any  binding  agreement  which  it 
could  be  assured  would  meet  with  the  approval  of  the 
Chinese  people. 

A  well-informed  writer,  H.  H.  Powers,  S.  B.,  Ph.  D., 
American  educationist  and  author,  who  has  visited 
China  six  times,  has  summed  up  the  situation  in  China, 
with  a  generalization  probably  too  sweeping,  by  say- 
ing that  the  trouble  with  the  present  government 
of  China  is  that  it  is  too  representative  of  the  Chinese 
people,  because  it  reflects  too  truly  their  political  mor- 
ality and  their  political  capacity.  He  adds  that  "their 
disloyalty  reflects  the  rudimentary  political  conscious- 
ness of  the  Chinese,  with  whom  loyalty  has  hardly  yet 
transcended  the  limits  of  the  clan.  .  .  .  Their  dis- 
sensions are  representative  of  the  incoherence  of  China, 
which  has  never  known  a  real  political  unit  beyond  that 
of  the  province.  .  .  .  The  hands-ofi^  policy  will 
keep  China  what  it  has  made  her,  a  flabby  colossus  that 
staggers  under  its  own  weight  and  whines  at  the  pinch 
of  a  school  boy." 

While  these  statements  will  probably  be  vigorously 
combatted  by  those  who  have  been  thrown  into  contact 
with  the  best  type  of  the  modern  educated  Chinaman, 
the  best  friends  of  China  will  not  deny  that  the  mass 
of  the  Chinese  people  do  not  now,  and  cannot  for  many 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE     25 

J  ears,  connect  the  idea  of  government  with  any  organ- 
ization beyond  the  province,  and  that  their  psychology 
does  not  include  the  idea  of  a  modern  unified,  consoli- 
dated, federated  nation. 

Many  people  who  have  come  in  contact  with  the  pro- 
gressive element  in  China,  that  is,  those  of  the  intel- 
ligencia  class,  derive  from  them  the  belief  that  if  that 
nation  is  protected  against  Japan's  aggressiveness,  it 
will  be  able  within  some  short  time  to  bring  about  such 
reforms  in  its  internal  affairs,  and  to  create  such  a 
national  solidarity,  as  to  establish  itself  as  one  of  the 
powerful  nations  of  the  earth.  But  if  this  does  not 
happen  within  the  next  generation,  it  seems  probable 
that,  in  the  natural  development  in  Asiatic  affairs, 
Japanese  power,  and  her  economic  and  industrial  devel- 
opment on  the  mainland,  will  make  inroads  on  the  sov- 
ereignty of  China  as  a  result  of  which  the  nation  may 
be  resolved  into  units  which  can  each  sustain  itself  more 
effectively  than  the  congeries  of  provinces  now  nomin- 
ally constituting  China. 

The  building  of  the  Chinese  people  into  an  autonom- 
ous, self-sustaining,  independent  nation,  by  educating 
the  mass  of  her  people  not  only  to  make  them  to  some 
extent  literate,  but  also  to  inculcate  an  idea  of  attach- 
ment to  their  country  as  a  whole  and  of  the  perform- 
ance of  the  duties  of  citizenship,  is  a  task  which  will 
occupy  generations.     In  the  meantime,  China  will  re- 


L 


26  JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE 

main  In  a  very  real  sense  the  ward  of  the  family  of 
civilized  nations  and  cannot  be  expected  to  take  an 
effective  initiative  in  advancing  the  cause  of  civiliza- 
tion in  the  East.  The  Conference  cannot  fairly  con- 
sider the  so-called  Far  Eastern  question  without  draw- 
ing a  contrast  between  the  situation  of  China  and  that 
of  Japan. 


JAPAN'S  PROGRESS  AS  A  MODERN  NATION 

In  the  last  three-quarters  of  a  century  Japan  has 
developed  upon  the  lines  of  western  civilization  in  an 
amazing  fashion.  In  educating  her  people,  in  the  de- 
velopment of  her  agriculture  and  industries,  and  in  her 
economic  and  commercial  interests,  Japan  has  pro- 
gressed with  a  rapidity  and  prosperity  having  no  paral- 
lel in  modern  history.  Furthermore,  her  national  con- 
sciousness has  so  developed  and  the  patriotism  of  her 
people  has  been  so  concentrated  that  the  solidarity  of 
her  people  is  not  equalled  by  any  other  country  in  the 
world  except  possibly  France.  In  the  energy  and  pro- 
gressiveness  of  her  people,  in  the  vision  of  her  states- 
men, in  the  aspirations  of  her  people  for  the  better- 
ment of  their  intellectual  and  material  condition;  in 
short,  in  all  of  the  activities,  moral,  mental  and  physi- 
cal, which  we  regard  as  necessary  for  the  development 
of  a  modern  state,  Japan  among  the  nations  of  the 
East  is  in  a  class  by  itself. 

Gradually  but  surely  she  is  becoming  a  representa- 
tive democratic  nation.  The  manhood  franchise  has 
been  extended  and  the  demand  for  universal  suffrage 
is  being  constantly  pressed.  The  interest  of  the  people 
in  public  affairs  is  manifested  at  great  public  meet- 

27 


28     JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFEEENCE 

ings.  Newspapers  are  numerous  and  are  no  less  alert 
in  keeping  track  of  public  affairs  than  the  American 
press.  In  one  of  the  great  cities  of  Japan  I  witnessed 
at  many  bulletin  boards  an  exhibition  of  the  interest 
of  the  people  In  the  returns  the  day  after  the  election 
to  the  Diet.  A  growing  liberal  party  is  gradually  but 
certainly  increasing  its  hold  upon  the  masses.  The 
human  material  upon  which  it  is  working  is  far  from 
being. buried  in  ignorance,  for  the  percentage  of  liter- 
acy among  the  Japanese  is  higher  even  than  it  is  in 
this  country.  The  compulsory  education  law  is  en- 
forced rigorously,  with  the  result  that  the  attendance 
in  the  schools  of  those  within  the  school  age  Is  general. 
While  in  some  of  the  districts  remote  from  the  great 
centers  of  population  the  instruction  of  the  poorer 
classes  is  not  such  as  to  give  them  more  than  a  limited 
knowledge  of  reading  and  writing,  there  is,  neverthe- 
less, a  great  body  of  the  common  people  who  have  suf- 
ficient knowledge  to  inform  themselves  by  reading  the 
newspapers,  which  they  do  with  the  most  assiduous 
attention.  There  is  thus  in  the  making  in  Japan  the 
kind  of  public  opinion  that  we  deem  essential  to  secure 
civil  liberty,  and  It  is  steadily  and  progressively  influ- 
encing governmental  action.  The  trend  is  towards  a 
popular  democratic  government. 

It  is  unfortunately  the  fact  that  the  ministers  of 
war  and  of  the  navy  are  not  removable  upon  the  change 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE     29 

of  the  political  administration.  Thus  military  affairs 
are  not  dependent  upon  departments  in  charge  of  civil 
administration  and  as  a  result  are  to  some  extent  re- 
moved from  the  restraints  of  public  opinion.  But  it 
is  generally  recognized  that  the  influences  working 
within  the  country  itself  and  a  regard  for  the  opinion 
of  other  nations  of  the  world,  are  gradually  evolving 
a  liberal  policy  which  is  tending  to  curb  the  imperial- 
istic tendency  which  has  been  dominant  under  the  mil- 
itaristic system.  Even  leaders  of  the  military  party 
are  themselves  convinced  that  an  imperialistic  policy 
must  be  pursued,  if  at  all,  with  much  more  circum- 
spection than  has  heretofore  been  regarded  as  neces- 
sary. Japan  asserts  that  her  policy  on  the  Asiatic 
continent  and  particularly  in  China  has  been  dictated 
by  a  wise  prevision  of  the  future  necessities  of  her 
people;  and  there  is  no  doubt  that  her  contention  is 
not  without  considerable  foundation. 

But  Japan's  aggressive  militarism  has  subjected  her 
to  the  suspicion  of  entertaining  imperialistic  designs 
involving  the  impairment  of  the  sovereignty  of  China, 
Mongolia,  Manchuria  and  Siberia.  Her  administra- 
tion of  recently  acquired  territory,  particularly  Korea, 
has  brought  upon  her  severe  criticism.  Her  tardiness 
in  withdrawing  her  troops  from  Siberia,  Manchuria, 
Mongolia  and  the  Shantung  Peninsula  have  been  espec- 
ially pointed  to  as  evidence  that  she  proposed  to  extend 


30      JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE 

her  hegemony  over  these  countries.  There  is  much  evi- 
dence of  her  effort  to  monopolize  Oriental  trade,  some- 
times by  questionable  means,  and  many  people  claim 
that  she  is  a  menace  to  the  policy  of  the  open  door 
in  China.  Instances  of  oppressive  practices  by  the 
Japanese  upon  the  Asiatic  continent,  made  effective  by 
the  support  given  to  them  by  military  forces,  are  num- 
erous. One  of  the  commonest  charges  made  against 
Japan  is  that  her  agents  have  corrupted  Chinese  gov- 
ernment officials  and  have  by  sinister  means  fomented 
disturbances  with  pre-concerted  designs  against  China's 
sovereignty,  or  at  least  to  prevent  her  from  acquiring 
a  national  solidarity  which  would  be  a  menace  to 
Japan's  supremacy. 

There  is  no  doubt  truth  in  some  of  these  charges. 
But  it  is  difficult  to  determine  how  far  these  Japanese 
activities  have  been  due  to  mere  mistaken  party  policy 
and  to  what  extent  to  a  prevailing  spirit  of  imperial- 
ism. Intelligent  Japanese  do  not  hesitate  to  admit  that 
mistakes  have  been  made,  nor  can  anyone  who  has  visit- 
ed Japan  fail  to  perceive  that  the  imperialistic  tenden- 
cies of  the  military  party  are  still  potent  and  that  they 
account  for  some  of  the  aggressive  enterprises  on  the 
Asiatic  continent. 

Encroachments  by  the  military  power  of  even  the 
most  advanced  nations  in  occupied  alien  territory  are 
to  be  expected.    The  military  history  of  Japan  and  the 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFEEENCE     3l 

long-maintained  predominance  of  the  military  spirit 
in  its  government,  not  yet  ended,  prepare  us  to  believe 
that  whatever  may  be  the  policy  of  the  civil  adminis- 
tration at  home,  there  may  be  ground  for  charges  of 
military  encroachments  abroad;  and  we  will  no  doubt 
continue  to  hear  that  Japan  has  an  ulterior  design  to 
establish  an  effective  hegemony  over  the  Asiatic  con- 
tinent. 

But  the  military  party  exerts  its  power  with  more 
regard  for  the  views  of  other  nations,  and  with  a  real- 
ization, perhaps  subconscious,  that  imperialistic  mili- 
tarism, upon  the  model  adopted  in  Germany,  cannot 
long  endure.  The  elder  statesmen  in  Japan  not  only 
realize  this  but  their  views  with  reference  to  the  pres- 
ent and  future  relations  between  Japan  and  this  coun- 
try were  sensibly  affected  during  the  late  war  by  the 
actual  and  potential  military  power  of  the  United 
States.  These  conditions  are  working  to  make  the 
chance  of  war  between  the  two  countries  extremely  re- 
mote, in  spite  of  the  irritation  recently  caused  by  the 
California  land  situation.  As  the  Japanese  people  are 
proud  and  very  sensitive,  and  as  they  are  easily  moved 
to  resentment  where  their  national  honor  is  involved, 
a  situation  might  arise  where  a  government  in  power 
might,  against  their  better  judgment,  be  forced  by  the 
people  to  assume  a  truculent  attitude;  but  recent  events 
have  rendered  this  more  and  more  improbable. 


S2  JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE 

Tn  connection  with  all  these  activities  of  the  Japan- 
ese, it  must  be  remembered  that  Japan  is  an  enlight- 
ened and  civilized  modern  nation;  and  that  her  states- 
men of  all  parties  feel  the  responsibility  for  adequate- 
ly caring  for  the  interests  of  her  citizens,  both  in  the 
matter  of  providing  for  their  creature  comforts  and 
also  for  their  enlightenment  and  training  in  the  duties  of 
citizenship.  Japan  does  not  and  cannot  produce  enough 
to  feed  her  people.  She  is  without  the  raw  materials 
to  maintain  her  industries.  Her  population  is  increas- 
ing at  the  rate  of  from  600,000  to  700,000  annually. 
Her  circumscribed  islands  are  overcrowded  and  the  re- 
stricted area  of  agricultural  land  compels  the  Japanese 
to  adopt  methods  of  cultivation  not  equaled  in  their  in- 
tensive character  in  any  other  part  of  the  world.  The 
people  on  her  islands  already  number  376  to  the 
square  mile,  indicating  a  density  exceeded  only  in 
Belgium  and  Holland.  Agricultural  Japan  is  one 
continuous  truck  garden,  and  waste  land  which  is 
capable  of  being  developed  for  agriculture  is  rarer 
than  in  almost  any  other  country  of  the  world.  Of 
the  entire  land  area  of  Japan  only  30%  is  arable, 
while  about  65%  is  mountainous  or  swampy,  or  un- 
available on  account  of  the  climate  for  agricultural 
purposes.  If  there  are  sixty  millions  of  Japanese  in 
Japan  their  existence  would  have  to  be  dependent  upon 
the  cultivation  of  44*,0O0  square  miles,  or  one-fourth 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE     33 

of  an  acre  per  capita.  To  provide  food  for  her  popu- 
lation and  raw  materials  for  her  industries,  it  is  abso- 
lutely essential  that  Japan  should  extend  her  indus- 
trial activities  to  the  Asiatic  continent.  The  fact  may 
as  well  be  looked  at  candidly  by  the  coming  conference 
and  that  cannot  be  done  without  a  study  of  Japan's 
real  necessities  and  an  endeavor  to  deal  with  them 
sympathetically.  Opposition  to  Japan  based  upon  in- 
sensate prejudice  or  condemnation  of  her  methods  as 
being  based  solely  upon  her  militaristic  and  imperial- 
istic designs  will  not  bring  a  solution  of  the  problem. 
If  the  United  States  and  other  Western  powers  refuse 
to  recognize  Japan's  needs  because  they  wish  to  main- 
tain for  some  indefinite  period  China's  national  integ- 
rity, territorial  and  political,  they  will  force  Japan  to 
adopt  a  policy  which  would  be  by  no  means  agreeable 
to  them. 


MISUNDERSTANDING  OF  THE  JAPANESE 

I  cannot  help  attributing  some  of  the  charges 
against  the  Japanese,  particularly  where  they  affect 
their  responsible  statesmen,  first,  to  a  national  self- 
sufficiency,  which  is  perhaps  not  unnatural  in  view  of 
the  recent  mihtary  and  industrial  history  of  Japan, 
resulting  in  a  reserve  which  causes  them  to  react  rather 
tardily  to  a  new  situation  In  international  diplomacy; 
and  second,  to  a  temperamental  caution.  I  would  not 
attribute  to  them  that  quality  of  inscrutable  mental- 
ity popularly  called  the  Oriental  Mind,  for  I  do  not 
think  such  a  thing  exists.  Most  of  us  who  have  dealt 
with  Oriental  questions  spasmodically  and  indolently, 
have  found  the  assumption  that  such  a  mind  exists  con- 
venient in  explaining  international  episodes  which  we 
have  had  neither  the  inclination  nor  the  facilities  for 
thoroughly  investigating.  A  closer  acquaintance  with 
Oriental  people,  however,  has  led  me  to  the  conclusion 
that  their  mental  processes  are  not  essentially  different 
from  ours.  It  is  true,  of  course,  that  their  viewpoint 
is  affected  by  national  customs,  religion,  historical  tra- 
ditions, inadequate  knowledge  of  conditions  existing  in 
distant  parts  of  the  earth,  and,  more  than  all  of  these, 

34 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE     35 

by  the  difference  in  the  language.  The  difficulty  in  the 
Japanese  in  conveying  ideas  is  fraught  with  much  great- 
er danger  of  misunderstanding  than  is  incident  to  inter- 
course with  nations  whose  language,  being  more  nearlj^ 
allied  to  ours,  can  be  much  more  readily  acquired  than 
the  bewildering  Chinese  ideographs,  and  the  complicated 
Japanese  language  which  is  largely  based  upon  them. 
Assuming  that  the  Oriental  way  of  looking  at  things 
is  due  to  these  conditions,  it  makes  it  desirable,  if  we 
would  avoid  international  misunderstandings,  that  we 
should  make  a  special  effort  to  overcome  the  difficulties 
in  the  way  of  complete  mutual  understanding. 

I  have  found  Mr.  Kumasaki,  the  Consul  General  of 
Japan  in  New  York,  a  very  candid  observer  of  the 
causes  of  our  misunderstanding  of  his  countrymen.  He 
recently  wrote  to  the  New  York  Tribune  as  follows : 

"My  suggestion  is,  Japan  will  be  better  understood 
when  she  is  looked  upon  as  a  nation  of  ordinary  human 
beings  animated  by  the  same  motives  and  aspirations 
as  all  the  rest  of  humanity.  Japan  may  differ  in  many 
ways  from  the  countries  of  Europe,  or  those  of  Amer- 
ica, but  the  Japanese  people  in  their  essential  human 
qualities  do  not  differ  a  particle  from  the  Americans 
or  any  other  people. 

"Viewed  in  this  light,  there  is  nothing  strange  or 
mysterious  about  the  Japanese.  The  history  of  the 
nation  during  the  last  half  century  shows  how  closely 


36  JAPAN    AND    TKE    FAR    EAST    CONiTERENCE 

her     behavior     approximates     those     of   the     western 
nations. 

"Japan  for  over  two  centuries  preceding  1854, 
when  the  country  was  opened  to  foreign  intercourse, 
had  been  a  hermit  nation.  She  had  kept  her  peace  and 
troubled  nobody.  There  was  not  a  single  war,  internal 
or  external.  The  Japanese  is  rightfully  proud  of  such 
a  long  period  of  peace  as  has  never  been  experienced 
by  modern  nations  of  the  world. 

.  "But  once  having  been  forced  to  enter  the  arena  of 
international  competition,  Japan  equipped  herself  with 
the  best  available  weapons  of  modern  civilization  for 
survival.  She  had  to  fight  several  wars.  It  was  the 
instinct  of  self-preservation  that  compelled  her  to  fight 
them  and  her  moral  and  physical  superiority  that  en- 
abled her  to  win  them. 

"In  order  to  make  clear  the  true  position  of  Japan 
let  me  call  your  attention  to  Japan's  role  in  the  Far 
East  as  its  stabilizer  and  as  the  leader  of  liberalism  in 
those  regions.  This  is  often  overlooked,  perhaps,  be- 
cause it  is  so  obvious. 

"First  look  at  the  map  of  the  Far  East.  If  you 
eliminate  Japan  from  it  how  much  will  there  be  left 
in  the  shape  of  law  and  order,  prosperity  and  progress, 
in  that  quarter  of  the  globe?  The  history  of  the  last 
century  in  those  regions  is  nothing  but  a  record  of 
aggression  and  spoliation  of  the  weak  peoples  by  strong 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE     37 

powers  from  Europe.  Japan's  presence  as  a  well  or- 
dered and  adequately  defended  nation,  vitally  interest- 
ed in  the  maintenance  of  peace  among  her  neighbors, 
has  served  undoubtedly  as  a  check  to  wholesale  exploi- 
tation. Unfortunately  unrest  and  civil  turmoil  exist 
in  certain  parts  of  the  Orient  to-day.  But  suppose 
there  were  no  Japan,  such  as  she  is,  and  that  she  were 
a  part  of  the  spoils  to  be  divided  up,  what  would  have 
been  the  chaos! 

"Japan  is  conscious  of  her  important  role.  She  is 
conscious  of  the  immense  difficulties  of  her  task.  She 
welcomes  heartily  the  support  and  cooperation  in  other 
great  powers  in  maintaining  peace  and  order  in  the 
Orient.  It  is  for  her  own  good  and  for  the  good 
of  all. 

"Secondly,  Japan  is  the  leader  of  liberalism  in  the 
Orient.  The  Japanese  constitution  was  promulgated 
in  1889.  During  the  following  thirty  odd  years  the 
nation  has  been  developing  steadily  along  the  lines  of 
representative  democratic  government.  The  big  merit 
of  the  Japanese  progress  is  its  evolutionary,  rather 
than  revolutionary,  character.  We  have  moved  stead- 
ily and  unfalteringly  forward,  adjusting  our  affairs  to 
the  needs  of  changing  times. 

"With  the  termination  of  the  great  war  a  phenomenal 
change  is  coming  over  the  Japanese  nation.  A  keen 
desire  to  catch  up  with  the  most  advanced  of  nations 


38      JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE 

is  evinced  in  various  new  movements  among  the  Japan- 
ese people. 

"If  you  think'  that  the  Japanese  are  all  of  one  mind 
you  are  badly  mistaken.  The  Japanese  differ  among 
themselves  in  ideas  and  beliefs  as  much  as  they  do  in 
their  physiognomy.  There  are  reactionaries  and  con- 
servatives as  well  as  liberals  and  radicals.  And  with 
the  ever  growing  freedom  of  speech  and  press  all  ques- 
tions, social  and  political  and  economic,  are  being  dis- 
cussed all  over  the  country." 

I  have  not  seen  anything  recently  which  seems  to  me 
to  sum  up  so  correctly  as  Mr.  Kumasaki's  statement, 
the  position  of  Japan  and  the  Japanese  people. 

The  self-sufficiency  of  the  Japanese,  to  which  I  have 
referred  above,  was  illustrated  in  Paris  in  relation  to 
the  Shantung  matter.  They  rested  on  what  they  re- 
garded as  the  merits  of  their  case,  while  the  Chinese 
delegates  took  pains  through  effective  propaganda  to 
excite  the  sympathy  of  the  world  in  their  contentions, 
— and  succeeded.  The  caution  of  the  Japanese  is  prob- 
ably due  in  part  to  the  brief  period  of  their  association 
in  international  relations  with  the  other  nations  and  in 
part  to  domestic  political  influences ;  perhaps  also  to  the 
treatment  they  have  received  at  the  hands  of  the  powers 
in  the  past,  notably  in  the  case  of  Port  Arthur. 

But  whatever  the  cause,  it  does  not  seem  to  me  that 
Japanese  statesmen  excel  in  those  arts  of  diplomacy 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE     39 

which  concihate  and  organize  public  opinion  in  foreign 
countries ; — and  to  that  fact  may  be  attributed  a  part 
at  least  of  the  prejudice  and  suspicion  which  has  been 
aroused  concerning  some  of  their  activities. 

Leaders  of  thought  in  Japan  do  not  hesitate  to  admit 
that  Japan  has  made  mistakes,  particularly  when  they 
speak  of  acts  for  which  political  opponents  are  respon- 
sible; for  internal  politics  plays  a  large  part  in  Japan 
even  in  matters  affecting  international  relations.  But 
such  apologists  generally  add  that  mistakes  are  to  be 
expected  in  the  conduct  of  the  affairs  of  a  nation  which 
has  been  developing  its  modern  civilization  for  only 
three-quarters  of  a  century.  Upon  many  matters,  how- 
ever, the  Japanese  with  some  insistence  claim  that  the 
rest  of  the  world  has  been  misled  through  an  inadequate 
understanding  of  the  facts  and  of  the  Oriental  environ- 
ment. They  are  tolerant  of  differences  of  opinion  con- 
cerning their  national  policy,  and  are  more  than  willing 
to  disclose  what  they  claim  to  be  the  facts ;  but  they 
are  extremely  sensitive  when  action  by  other  nations, 
and  particularly  by  America,  is  predicated  upon  a  sup- 
posed inferiority  of  their  race;  and  when  one  has  seen 
the  remarkable  development  in  the  economic  and  indus- 
trial life  of  Japan,  the  solidarity  with  which  the  Japan- 
ese people  pursue  their  national  aspirations,  the  effec- 
tive manner  in  which  they  are  cultivating  the  modern 
arts  of  civilization,  and  the  importance  which  they  at- 


40     JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFEEENCE 

tach  to  universal  education  of  the  people,  one  is  not 
surprised  that  the  people  of  Japan  expect  to  be  ranked 
as  among  the  nations  of  the  earth  who  have  reached  the 
highest  point  of  civilization,  precisely  as  they  are  now 
recognized  as  one  of  the  powers  of  the  world. 


THE  LANSING-ISHII  AGREEMENT 

By  the  Lansing-Ishii  agreement,  the  Wilson  admin- 
istration recognized  that  propinquity  and  political  in- 
terest justified  Japan  in  claiming  that  she  had  a  pecu- 
liar relation  to  all  Asiatic  matters.  Certainly,  so  long 
as  that  agreement  continues  to  be  a  formulation  of  our 
policy  in  relation  to  Oriental  matters,  we  cannot  object 
to  Japan  seeking  economic  advantages  on  the  Asiatic 
continent.  Furthermore,  the  agreement  puts  America 
in  a  situation  where  it  can  do  much;  for  her  friendly 
intervention  will  be  of  enormous  influence  in  Japan ;  and 
in  the  approaching  conference  she  would  perform  a 
world  service  by  not  permitting  pressure  in  behalf  of 
China  to  result  in  restrictions  upon  Japan  which  that 
country  would  seriously  resent. 

But  Secretary  Lansing  informed  the  Senate  Com- 
mittee on  Foreign  Relations  that  the  policy  declared  in 
the  agreement  was  to  continue  only  so  long  as  the  Presi- 
dent and  the  State  Department  should  determine.  Fur- 
thermore, it  is  evident  that  Japan  has  had  an  under- 
standing of  the  effect  of  the  agreement  quite  different 
from  that  entertained  by  Mr.  Lansing  and  this  country 
generally.  We  have  understood  the  agreement  as  imply- 
ing nothing  more  than  the  open  door,  while  Japan's 

41 


4<2  JAPAN    AND    THE    FAR    EAST    CONEERENCE 

statesmen  and  her  press  have  interpreted  it  as  a  recog- 
nition of  the  dominant  political  power  of  Japan  upon 
the  Asiatic  continent.  And  now  it  is  clear  that  Mr.  Hard- 
ing's administration  is  proposing  to  put  an  interpreta- 
tion on  the  Lansing-Ishii  agreement  which,  while  it  will 
insure  the  open  door  in  China,  will  withhold  recognition 
of  political  power.  Mr.  Hughes  has  recently  written 
to  the  Chinese  Minister  as  follows : 

"The  Government  of  the  United  States  has  never  asso- 
ciated itself  with  any  arrangement  which  sought  to 
establish  any  special  rights  or  privileges  in  China  which 
would  abridge  the  rights  of  the  subjects  or  citizens  of 
other  friendly  States ;  and  I  am  happy  to  assure  you 
that  it  is  the  purpose  of  this  Government  neither  to 
participate  nor  to  acquiesce  in  any  arrangement  which 
might  purport  to  establish  in  favor  of  foreign  inter- 
ests any  superiority  of  rights  with  respect  to  com- 
mercial or  economic  development  in  designated  regions 
of  the  territories  of  China,  or  which  might  seek  to  create 
any  such  monopoly  or  preference  as  would  exclude  other 
nationals  from  undertaking  any  legitimate  trade  or 
industry,  or  from  participating  with  the  Chinese  Gov- 
ernment in  any  category  of  public  enterprise." 

It  is  not  easy  to  reconcile  either  the  text  or  the  spirit 
of  this  statement  with  the  language  of  the  Lansing- 
Ishii  agreement,  and  it  is  certainly  contrary  to  the  im- 
port of  that  agreement  as  it  has  been  interpreted  in 


I 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAE  EAST  CONFERENCE     43 

Japan.  This  illustrates  one  feature  of  our  treatment 
of  Oriental  affairs  that  has  been  extremely  unfortunate, 
and  has  gone  far  in  impairing  the  lasting  character 
of  our  influence  and  our  policies ;  for  these  have  not 
been  continuous  or  consistent.  I  need  only  mention  the 
reversal  by  Mr.  Wilson  of  the  "dollar  diplomacy"  of 
Mr.  KJnox  and  the  return  by  Mr.  Wilson  to  a  similar 
policy  in  his  approval  of  the  Consortium  for  the  purpose 
of  giving  China  financial  assistance. 


JAPAN'S  IMPERIALISM 

The  Japanese  are  undoubtedly  extending  their  sphere 
of  influence  on  the  Asiatic  continent,  notably  in  the 
Shantung  Peninsula,  Southern  Manchuria  and  Eastern 
Siberia,  and  they  are  consolidating  their  power  in  Korea 
and  Formosa.  Japan  insists  that  her  motives  are  econo- 
mic ;  that  she  is  merely  extending  her  trade,  or  seeking, 
by  colonization  and  the  investment  of  capital  in  industri- 
al development,  to  provide  for  that  part  of  her  popula- 
tion which  is  overflowing  to  the  mainland,  and  to  secure 
raw  materials  and  food  for  her  rapidly  increasing  peo- 
ple who  remain  at  home.  But  it  is  asserted  by  Japan's 
critics  that  her  Asiatic  policy  will  lead  to  the  dismem- 
berment of  China ;  and  certainly,  if  that  is  Japan's  pur- 
pose, China,  unaided,  would  have  small  chance  to  avert 
such  a  fate.  China  is  like  a  great  slumbering  giant, 
and  the  vital  question  of  the  Orient  is  how  long  the 
world  will  wait  for  her  to  awaken,  and  how  long  Japan 
can  be  restrained  in  her  national  aspirations,  in  order 
to  let  China  catch  up  and  create  a  balance  of  power, 
giving  stability  to  both  of  the  two  great  Oriental 
powers.  No  nation  on  earth  has  more  interest  in  this 
question  than  the  United  States ;  and  it  will  undoubtedly 

44 


JAPAN    AND    THE,   FAE    EAST    CONFERENCE  45 

i  engage  the  most  careful  consideration  of  the  coming 
'  conference. 

One  thing  that  should  encourage  us  to  believe  that 
our  attitude  in  the  conference  will  influence  the  future 
I  policy  of  Japan  is  the  rather  recently  developed  solid- 
'  tude  of  the  Japanese  people  concerning  the  public  opin- 
,  ion  of  the  United  States.  It  does  not  need  a  long  so- 
'■  joum  in  Japan,  or  much  contact  with  her  people,  to 
discover  that  they  are  more  anxious  to  know  what  we 
think  of  them  than  we  are  to  concern  ourselves  with  their 
national  activities.  The  liberal  element  is  particularly 
anxious  to  justify  Japan  in  the  eyes  of  the  world  for 
such  measures  as  the  occupation  of  Shantung  and  the 
annexation  of  Korea;  and  members  of  the  so-called 
military  party  are  themselves  by  no  means  indifferent. 
It  results  that  the  opportunity  afforded  to  America  as 
a  great  power  on  the  Pacific  to  keep  Japanese  aspira- 
tions within  reasonable  bounds,  was  never  better,  in  spite 
of  the  exacerbation  temporarily  caused  by  the  Califor- 
nia situation.  But  will  America  deal  wisely  and  con- 
sistently in  the  conference,  and  afterwards,  with  the 
Oriental  situation?  If  its  Eastern  policy  is  to  change 
with  each  administration  so  radically  as  it  did  when  Mr. 
Wilson  became  President,  it  is  not  reasonably  to  be  ex- 
pected that  it  wiU  be  very  effective.  Nor  will  a  futile 
protest  in  the  conference  against  a  fait  accompli  like 
that  of  the  Shantung  provision  of  the  treaty  with  Gev- 


46     JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE 

many  have  any  useful  result  or  improve  the  relations 
between  the  two  countries.  What  is  needed  is  a  definite, 
well-rounded,  consistent  and  continuous  policy  with  ref- 
erence to  Oriental  matters.  If  such  a  policy  can  be 
adopted  and  formulated  in  conference,  it  will  have  enor- 
mous influence  in  shaping  the  destinies  of  the  East. 

In  the  matter  of  potential  military  strength,  if  we 
leave  out  of  account  financial  considerations,  Japan  is 
so  powerful  that  she  could  probably  subjugate  all  of 
the  hundreds  of  millions  of  people  living  in  China,  Man- 
churia, Mongolia  and  Siberia.  But  fortunately  for  the 
rest  of  the  world,  Japan  has  advanced  far  enough  in  her 
grasp  of  modern  world  conditions  to  understand  that 
an  attempt  at  any  such  gigantic  conquest  would  ulti- 
mately prove  disastrous  and  that  no  modern  nation 
could  long  endure  should  it  undertake  such  an  enter- 
prise against  the  protest  of  the  family  of  world  nations. 
And  while  she  often  exhibits  a  caution  in  her  interna- 
tional relations  which  tends  to  excite  suspicion  as  to  her 
ulterior  designs,  Japan  is  at  the  present  time  peculiarly 
receptive  of  advice  from  the  western  nations  and  par- 
ticularly from  the  United  States,  in  relation  to  her 
policy  in  the  East. 

Under  these  circumstances  what  is  the  best  policy  for 
this  country  to  pursue?  Ought  we  not  to  participate 
with  other  powers  in  the  conference  in  seeking  to  influ- 
ence Japan's  policy  in  Eastern  Asia?    And  in  so  doing 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAB,  EAST  CONFEEENCE     47 

ought  we  not  to  approach  Japan's  problems  sympathe- 
tically from  her  standpoint  and  not  in  a  spirit  which 
prejudges  her  case? 


OUR  INTEREST  IN  DEAI.ING  WITH 
FAR  EAST  QUESTIONS 

Two  thousand  miles  of  our  western  sea-coast  front 
the  islands  and  the  shores  of  Asia.  By  cable  and  wire- 
less we  are  in  daily  communication  with  all  parts  of  the 
Orient.  Fast  steamers  brings  us  no  further  from  them 
than  were  Virginia  and  Massachusetts  from  each  other 
for  many  years  after  our  Revolution.  We  have  ex- 
tended across  the  Pacific  a  chain  of  outposts  com- 
mencing with  Hawaii,  passing  through  Guam  and  ex- 
tending to  the  Philippines.  Our  interests  require  that 
an  open  door  in  China  should  be  maintained  through 
which  we  may  participate  in  and  seek  to  develop  trade 
among  her  millions.  We  have  not  hesitated  both 
through  diplomatic  channels  and  through  manifesta- 
tions of  public  opinion  to  let  Oriental  countries  under- 
stand that  as  a  nation  we  have  an  interest  in  such 
matters  as  the  Shantung  Peninsula,  the  twenty-one  de- 
mands of  Japan  on  China  during  the  war,  the  economic 
concessions  of  China  to  Japan  in  Southern  Manchuria, 
the  occupation  of  Siberia,  the  recognition  of  a  special 
interest  on  the  part  of  Japan,  on  account  of  propin- 
quity, in  the  neighboring  countries  of  Asia,  the  Con- 

48 


JAPAN    AND    THE,   FAR    EAST    CONFERENCE  49 

sortium,  and  the  mandatory  of  the  Island  of  Yap.  It 
will  hardly  be  contended  that  we  have  not  clearly,  if 
spasmodically,  asserted  our  national  interest  in  the 
political  affairs  of  the  Far  East.  It  may  be  unfor- 
tunate, according-  to  the  way  in  which  one  looks  at  it ; 
but  it  remains  the  indisputable  fact  that  our  material 
and  political  interests  in  the  East  and  the  responsi- 
bilities which  have  been  by  fate  thrown  upon  us,  demand 
that  our  political  relations  with  the  countries  of  the 
Orient,  and  especially  with  Japan,  should  be  made  of 
the  highest  concern  to  the  American  nation.  And  from 
the  standpoint  of  national  idealism  also  American  pub- 
lic opinion  will  no  doubt  continue  to  concern  itself  with 
Far  Eastern  Affairs. 

Although  the  United  States  is  one  of  the  most  prac- 
tical and  progressive  nations  of  the  world,  it  is  equally 
true  that  it  is  the  most  idealistic.  Instances  illustrat- 
ing this  are  numerous.  I  need  mention  only  a  few, 
such  as  our  refusal  to  take  Cuba,  our  payment  of 
$20,000,000  for  the  Philippines,  which  was  not  better 
than  a  liability,  our  attitude  towards  Mexico,  our  re- 
turn to  China  of  the  Boxer  indemnity  to  be  used  by 
her  for  educational  purposes,  and  to  Japan  of  the  Shi- 
moneseki  award.  However  other  nations  may  dislike 
us  or  criticize  us,  such  things  as  these  check  any  ten- 
dency to  distrust  our  national  motives.  This  national 
idealism  not  only  gives  us  a  growing  interest,  but  also 


60     JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE 

a  potent  influence,  in  the  development  of  civilization 
in  the  Far  East.  As  I  have  said,  the  civilization  which 
has  reached  its  most  perfected  form  among  the  western 
Christian  nations,  moves  inevitably  towards  the  west. 
In  mid-Pacific  the  West  becomes  the  East,  and  signs 
are  not  wanting  that  the  influence  of  western  civiliza- 
tion is  slowly  but  surely  making  its  impress  upon  the 
ancient  and  comparatively  obsolescent  civilization  of 
the  Far  East.  Ajmerica  cannot  view  with  indiff^erence 
a  historical  epoch  having  such  significance  for  the  up- 
lifting of  humanity. 

Then  too  our  trade  situation  with  the  Orient  is  of 
first  rate  importance.  Our  imports  from  Japan  in 
1920  were  half  a  billion  dollars  and  were  about  equal 
to  those  from  the  United  Kingdom  and  from  Canada. 
They  far  exceeded  those  from  any  other  of  the  chief 
countries  of  the  world.  Our  exports  to  Japan  were 
more  than  a  half  a  billion  dollars  and  were  far  in  excess 
of  those  to  any  other  of  the  great  countries  of  the 
world,  excepting  France,  the  United  Kingdom  and 
Canada.  Our  trade  with  Japan  is  four  times  that  with 
China,  which  has  probably  six  or  seven  times  the  popu- 
lation of  Japan.  The  maintenance  of  the  commercial 
relations  between  the  two  countries  having  such  com- 
mercial relations  is  clearly  of  very  great  importance. 


IMMIGRATION  AND  THE  CALIFORNIA 
LAND  QUESTION 

It  is  the  reaction  which  has  followed  the  assumption 
by  America  of  racial  superiority  that  has  caused  more 
irritation  than  many  of  the  other  questions,  more  im- 
portant to  us,  which  have  been  the  subject  of  interna- 
tional discussion.  The  Japanese  have  felt  that  they 
have  not  only  been  treated  as  inferior  to  Americans, 
but  also  to  other  people  less  advanced  than  they  who 
are  permitted  to  enter  the  United  States  under  restric- 
tions milder  than  those  imposed  on  them.  There  seems 
to  be  no  expectation  (or  any  very  strong  desire)  on 
the  part  of  Japan  that  we  should  change  our  Oriental 
exclusion  policy.  But  there  is  a  good  deal  of  irrita- 
tion on  account  of  the  manner  in  which  California  has 
been  recently  dealing  with  the  land  question,  in  its  effort 
to  prevent  Japanese  residents  of  that  state  from  ac- 
quiring agricultural  lands.  This  question  should  not 
be  confused  with  the  general  immigration  exclusion 
policy  of  the  United  States,  which  is  embodied  in  the 
"Gentlemen's  Agreement,"  negotiated  by  Mr.  Root,  and 
which  is  faithfully  observed  by  Japan. 

51 


52  JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE 

The  Japanese  are  not  a  colonizing  people — their  love 
of  their  native  land  is  too  intense  for  that.  Japan's 
statesmen  seem  to  be  willing  at  present  to  keep  as  many 
of  her  nationals  as  they  can  in  the  Archipelago  or  in 
Formosa  or  Korea,  or,  if  they  must  be  colonized,  to 
send  them,  as  they  now  are  doing,  to  those  other  parts 
of  Asia  which  are  near  at  hand  and  are  being  developed 
with  Japanese  capital. 

But  in  California  the  effort  has  been  to  prevent 
Japanese  who  were  permanent  residents,  although  not 
citizens,  from  acquiring  control,  through  leases  or  by 
transfer  to  their  minor  children,  of  agricultural  lands. 
The  legislation  to  accomplish  this  was  based  on  initia- 
tive petitions,  and  the  political  agitation  which  it  has 
aroused,  was  marked  by  exaggerated  and  inflamed 
statements  concerning  Japan  and  the  Japanese.  The 
new  California  land  law  was  not  directed  in  terms  at 
the  Japanese,  but  generally  at  persons  who  were  not 
qualified  to  become  citizens  of  the  United  States ;  and 
under  the  citizenship  laws  of  the  United  States  as 
"white  men  and  Africans"  are  eligible  to  citizenship  but 
"Mongolians"  were  not  mentioned,  the  Chinese  and  the 
Japanese  are  by  implication  excluded.  It  is  this  dis- 
crimination which  operates  to  make  the  new  California 
law  apply  to  the  Japanese ;  and  that,  as  I  have  said,  is 
the  chief  cause  of  complaint  on  their  part,  and  espec- 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE     53 

jally  because  they  are  thus  treated  as  inferior  to  all 
"white  men  and  Africans." 

It  is  urged  that  the  effect  of  the  California  statute 
is  to  deny  to  the  Japanese  the  equal  protection  of  the 
law,  in  that  it  discriminates  among  different  classes 
of  aliens,  conferring  upon  one  the  protection  of  the 
law  which  it  denies  to  another.  It  is  also  claimed  that 
the  provisions  are  in  violation  of  our  treaty  with  Japan 
which  provides  that  Japanese  residing  in  this  country 
**may  own  or  hire  and  occupy  houses,  manufactories, 
warehouses,  shops  and  premises,  and  lease  land  for  resi- 
dential and  commercial  purposes."  But  I  do  not  be- 
lieve that  a  satisfactory  solution  of  our  relations  with 
Japan,  so  far  as  they  are  affected  by  the  California 
land  question,  will  be  found  in  a  decision  upon  a  mere 
question  of  constitutional  law.  From  the  international 
standpoint  the  vital  consideration  is  that  a  single  state 
of  the  Union  is  insisting  upon  its  own  solution  of  a 
problem  affecting  its  local,  social  and  business  inter- 
ests, and,  in  the  words  of  Governor  Stephens,  "is  very 
sensitive  about  any  interference  with  or  restraint  upon 
the  sovereign  right  of  the  State  to  deal  with  its  domestic 
land  problems."  It  has  not  so  much  concern  as  to  the 
manner  in  which  that  solution  may  affect  the  interests 
of  the  country  at  large. 

It  is  this  phase  of  the  matter  that  ought  to  engage 
jthe  attention  of  every  American  citizen. 


54  JAPAN    AND    THE    FAR    EAST    CONJFEEENCE 

I  do  not  mean  to  be  understood  as  laying  that  the 
position  which  the  people  of  California  have  taken  is 
not  without  justification,  or  that  the  Japanese  who 
have  settled  in  California  are  themselves  without  blame 
for  the  situation  which  has  been  created.  The  Japan- 
ese government  might  have  anticipated,  and  perhaps 
have  adopted  measures  to  prevent,  what  has  happened. 
The  Japanese  have  selected  a  part  of  our  country  with 
a  most  salubrious  climate  and  fertile  land.  They  have 
made  no  effort  to  distribute  themselves,  and,  with  their 
prosperity  and  their  increasing  enjoyment  of  the  ad- 
vantages afforded  them  by  the  protection  of  the  stat«^ 
laws,  they  have  not  conformed  their  customs  and  man- 
ner of  living  to  those  prevailing  in  America.  On  the 
contrary,  they  have  concentrated  themselves  in  limited 
areas,  which  has  resulted  in  the  establishment  of  com- 
munities in  which  have  been  retained  Japanese  social, 
domestic  and  religious  customs.  This  was  sure,  sooner 
or  later,  to  result  in  prejudice  and  discrimination. 
Furthermore,  by  availing  themselves  of  their  rights 
under  the  letter  of  state  statutes  while  ignoring  their 
spirit  they  have  invited  new  and  discriminatory  laws. 
Thus  it  is  charged  (I  have  no  figures  showing  the  ex- 
tent of  the  practice),  that  in  order  to  evade  the  dis- 
ability as  to  land  ownership,  they  have,  under  the  legal- 
istically  correct  advice  of  California  lawyers,  pur- 
chased land  and  had  it  conveyed  to  their  minor  chil- 


JAPAN    AND    the;   FAR    EAST    CONFERENCE  55 

dren.  They  have  then  been  appointed  guardians  of 
these  children,  thus  becoming  the  practical  owners  of 
land  they  could  not  buy  themselves.  They  have  also 
formed  corporations  qualified  under  the  California  law 
to  acquire  title  to  land  and  have  become  the  sole  stock- 
holders. By  such  methods  as  these  they  have  been  en- 
abled lawfully  to  enjoy  the  benefits  of  land  ownership, 
in  spite  of  laws  which  were  designed  to  prevent  pre- 
cisely that  result.  This  procedure  was  certain  to  bring 
reprisals.  If  there  is  discrimination,  the  Japanese 
government  and  the  Japanese  people,  in  dealing  with 
the  question  as  an  international  matter,  ought  not  to 
overlook  these  antecedent  conditions. 

I  would  not  adequately  deal  with  this  phase  of  the 
subject  if  I  did  not  observe  that  subjectively  the  Japan- 
ese are  more  Intensely  nationalistic  than  any  other  na- 
tion on  earth,  with  the  possible  exception  of  France. 
In  their  feelings  for  their  nationals  who  are  settled 
in  other  countries,  the  psychology  of  the  Japanese 
people  differs  from  that  of  the  American  people. 
They  seem  to  be  attached  to  the  interests  of  their  fel- 
low countrymen  wherever  they  are,  and  they  are  keenly 
sensitive  to  any  affront  offered  to  them  by  foreign  na- 
tions. We  Americans,  on  the  other  hand,  have  com- 
paratively little  experience  with  American  citizens  who 
emigrate  to  other  countries.  The  comparatively  few 
who  have  gone  to  such  countries  as  Mexico  and  the 


56  JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE 

Orient  have  well  understood  that  they  would  be  expect- 
ed to  conform  to  the  laws  and  customs  of  the  countries 
to  which  they  emigrate,  and  that  our  government  would 
not  lightly  interfere  to  protect  their  interests.  We  do 
not  quite  understand  how  an  American  citizen  can  re- 
concile himself  to  permanently  leaving  his  native  coun- 
try or  becoming  naturalized  in  a  foreign  land.  It  is 
a  little  difficult,  therefore,  for  us  to  realize  the  intensity 
of  feeling  which  has  been  aroused  in  Japan  on  account 
of  the  rights  of  Japanese  citizens  who  are  seeking  the 
protection  and  advantages  to  be  enjoyed  under  a  for- 
eign government.  I  mention  this  matter  merely  to 
show  that  the  viewpoint  of  the  two  nations  is,  if  not 
irreconcilable,  at  least  such  as  to  require  it  to  be  dealt 
with  with  some  delicacy. 

It  is  undoubtedly  true  that  the  amount  of  land  in 
California  owned  and  worked  by  the  Japanese  is  not 
large  in  comparison  with  the  entire  area  of  cultivable 
land  in  the  State.  Of  27,931,444  acres  of  farm  land, 
the  Japanese  own  74,769  acres  and  lease  383,287 ;  and 
the  average  farm  in  California  is  approximately  320 
acres,  while  the  farms  of  the  Japanese  average  only  56 
acres.  The  total  of  farm  products  in  California,  ac- 
cording to  a  report  of  Governor  Stephens,  was  valued 
at  $507,811,881,  to  which  the  Japanese  contributed 
$67,145,730  or  13%.  The  Japanese  produce  80%  to 
92%  of  certain  products,  like  berries,  celery  and  as- 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE     57 

paragus,  and  the  American  farmers  monopolize  such 
products  as  hay,  grain,  potatoes,  grapes,  beans,  rice, 
cotton,  corn,  fruits  and  nuts.  But  these  comparisons 
do  not  quite  present  the  concrete  conditions ;  for  the 
Japanese  colonize  in  districts  of  limited  area,  notably 
the  Sacramento  Valley,  and  there  by  their  industry, 
their  economy  and  their  frugal  habits,  they  soon  drive 
out  the  neighboring  American  farmers,  who  are  unable 
to  sustain  the  competition,  largely  because  their  stand- 
ards of  living  materially  differ  from  those  of  the  Jap- 
anese. 

But  there  is  no  doubt  that  in  these  and  other  mat- 
ters gross  exaggeration  has  caused  groundless  fears. 
I  noticed  an  example  of  this  in  a  recent  article  in  the 
World's  Work,  where  a  writer  comments  upon  the  fact 
that,  after  the  "Gentlemen's  Agreement"  in  1907,  un- 
der which  the  Japanese  agreed  to  discontinue  the  grant- 
ing of  passports  to  laboring  classes,  the  number  of 
Japanese  arrivals  fell  from  more  than  30,000  in  1907 
to  less  than  4,000  in  1909,  but  that  after  that  they 
largely  increased  until  in  1919  they  numbered  more 
than  16,000.  But  it  is  not  stated  that  the  30,000  im- 
migrants in  1907  included  about  20,000  who  went  to 
Hawaii.  The  writer  exhibits  a  table  showing  that  the 
aggregate  arrivals  since  1908  have  been  about  120,000. 
If  these  were  added  to  the  Japanese  population  ac- 
cording to  the  census  of  1910,  which  was  about  40,000, 


5S  JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE 

the  present  Japanese  population  would  be  160,000.  As 
a  matter  of  fact,  however,  the  census  which  was  re- 
cently completed  shows  that  the  Japanese  population 
of  California  is  70,196,  an  increase  of  only  28,840  or 
69.7%  since  1910.  Perhaps  the  writer  in  the  World\^ 
Work  did  not  intend  to  have  the  deduction  made  that 
all  of  the  arrivals  went  to  increase  the  resident  Japan- 
ese population,  but  from  his  figures  an  uninformed 
reader  would  probably  arrive  at  that  conclusion.  The 
fact  is,  however,  that  in  the  period  mentioned  in  the 
World's  Work  the  figures  given  include  arrivals  in 
Hawaii,  and  the  departures  are  not  deducted.  The  fig- 
ures for  arrivals,  therefore,  show  only  one  side  of  the 
account,  and  do  not  represent  the  net  result  of  immi- 
gration into  continental  United  States.  These  facts 
render  the  tabulation  of  the  writer  in  World's  Work 
of  little  value  in  determining  whether  the  increase  in 
the  Japanese  population  in  California  is  so  great  as 
to  give  just  cause  for  apprehension.  The  figures  of 
the  recent  census  show  that  California  now  has  a  popu- 
lation of  3,426,861  and  a  Japanese  population  of 
70,196,  or  about  2%.  In  1910  it  was  1.7%.  The  rate 
of  increase,  being  l/30th  of  1%  per  year,  is  not 
alarming.  Furthermore,  it  appears  that  a  very  large 
part  of  the  increase  of  the  Japanese  population  con- 
sisted  of   women,   no    doubt   many    of  them   "Picture 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE     59 

Brides,"  brought  to  this  country  to  establish  the  fam- 
ilies of  the  farmers  who  preceded  them. 

But,  however  exaggerated  statements  made  in  the 
heat  of  the  recent  political  campaign  in  California  may 
have  been,  the  question  is  a  real  one  to  the  Calif ornians 
and  the  situation  created  in  certain  localities  ought  to 
be  dealt  with  in  justice  to  the  citizens  of  the  state.  The 
Japanese  are  not  seeking  to  abandon  the  "Gentlemen's 
Agreement"  of  1907,  or  to  have  the  bars  against  Orien- 
tal immigration  lowered.  But  they  are  restive  because 
they  are  not  treated  like  other  nations  of  the  world, 
however  backward  the  people  of  such  nations  may  be. 
This  complaint  may  be  removed  if  our  immigration 
laws  are  put  upon  a  more  scientific  basis.  The  neces- 
sity for  this  has  been  pressed  upon  us  by  the  impend- 
ing danger  that  we  may  be  flooded  by  immigrants  from 
Southern  Europe  and  the  Near  East.  The  new  Immi- 
gration Law  I  hope  may  be  an  opening  wedge  to  a  bet- 
ter condition.  It  is  based  on  the  principle  that  the 
number  of  immigrants  allowed  to  enter  shall  be  made 
dependent  upon  the  ability  of  our  country  to  absorb, 
assimilate  and  Americanize  them,  without  undue  dis- 
turbance of  our  social  and  industrial  conditions. 

Probably  the  conference  called  by  President  Harding 
will  not  deal  with  the  California  question.  I  wish  it 
might.     But  Japan's  participation  and  the  considera- 


60      JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE 

tion  shown  to  her  unquestioned  position  as  one  of  the 
powers  of  the  world  will  certainly  have  a  good  effect. 

In  an  article  published  in  Current  Opinion  last  win- 
ter I  wrote  as  follows : 

"I  hope  the  pending  diplomatic  negotiations  may 
contribute  something  to  restore  cordial  feeling  between 
the  two  nations.  If  these  fail,  however,  the  suggestion 
is  worthy  of  consideration,  that  there  be  appointed  an 
international  commission  which  will  attempt  to  find  a 
solution  of  the  troublesome  question,  having  regard  for 
Japan's  national  pride,  for  the  vital  interests  of  Cali- 
fornia, and  for  the  rights  of  the  entire  American  peo- 
ple. Objections  having  force  have  been  made  to  such 
a  commission.  But  the  controlling  consideration  in  its 
favor,  in  my  judgment,  is  that  in  no  other  way  than 
by  the  report  of  an  international  body  composed  of 
eminent  men,  in  whose  membership  California  is  rep- 
resented, can  a  conclusion  be  arrived  at  which  will  have 
the  necessary  weight  with  both  the  people  of  California 
and  the  people  of  Japan. 

"So  far  as  the  general  subject  of  immigration  is 
concerned,  that,  of  course,  may  be  dealt  with  from  the 
national  standpoint,  but  the  ownership  and  leasing  of 
land  is  a  matter  usually  regulated  by  state  laws,  and 
when  national  action  is  proposed,  the  interests  of  the 
state  must  not  only  be  considered  but  the  people  of  the 
state  must  be  assured  that  their  interests  have  received 


i 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE     61 

from  an  impartial  body  the  attention  which  they  de- 
serve. It  would,  in  my  opinion,  be  within  the  compet- 
ency of  the  treaty-making  power  of  the  United  States 
to  enter  into  a  treaty  with  Japan  which  would  render 
null  and  void  a  provision  of  the  California  statutes,  or 
even  of  its  constitution,  with  which  it  was  in  conflict, 
for  the  Constitution  of  the  United  States  provides  that 
treaties  of  the  United  States  are  to  be  'the  supreme 
law  of  the  land.'  But  the  national  government  has  al- 
ways hesitated  to  deal  with  the  rights  of  states  by  the 
exercise  of  the  treaty-making  power,  and  it  probably 
will  not  attempt  to  do  so  in  the  case  of  California." 


SHAiNTUNG 

Another  matter  which  will  undoubtedly  engage  the 
attention  of  the  conference  called  by  President  Hard- 
ing is  the  Shantung  question.  When  I  was  in  Japan 
about  a  year  and  a  half  ago  the  public  men  of  that 
country  were  inclined,  as  I  have  already  said,  to  take 
the  position  that  so  far  as  America  was  concerned 
there  was  no  Shantung  question — that  it  was  settled 
by  the  provision  of  the  Treaty  of  Versailles  under 
which  Japan  succeeded  to  the  rights  of  Germany  in  the 
Shantung  Peninsula.  But  Japanese  statesmen  were 
quite  willing  to  state  Japan's  position  so  far  as  it  re- 
lated to  China. 

The  Shantung  province  has  a  population  of  thirty 
millions.  It  contains  the  grave  of  Confucius,  which 
sanctifies  its  territory.  On  the  sea-coast  the  district 
of  Kiao  Chau,  formerly  occupied  by  the  Germans, 
occupies  a  territory  of  about  twenty  square  miles. 
Tsing  Tau,  the  city  within  that  district,  became  dur- 
ing the  German  occupation  a  beautiful  modern  city. 
Japan  occupied  Shantung  for  the  purpose  of  organ- 
izing its  campaign  against  the  German  forces  in  Kiao 
Chau  and  Tsing  Tau.  After  the  capture  of  these 
places,   the  military   occupation   of  the   country   con- 

62 


JAPAN    AND    THE    FAR    EAST    CONFERENCE  63 

tinned,  and  the  Japanese  forces  policed  the  railroad 
running  from  Tsing  Tau  to  Tsinan-Pu,  the  capital 
of  the  province,  a  distance  of  170  miles.  Up  to  a 
certain  time  the  occupation  of  the  Shantung  province 
was  undoubtedly  a  justifiable  incident  of  the  war.  It 
took  place  when  the  Allies  were  only  too  glad  to  avail 
themselves  of  the  efforts  of  Japan  to  destroy  the  mili- 
tary power  of  Germany  in  the  East.  As  the  war  drew 
to  a  close,  however,  the  question  of  Japan's  withdrawal 
from  the  Shantung  province  came  up  sharply  for  dis- 
cussion, and  particularly  in  connection  with  the  nego- 
tiations at  Paris  which  resulted  in  the  Versailles  Treaty. 
If  Japan  had  not  given  her  assurance  to  the  allied 
nations  that  her  occupation  of  Shantung  would  not  be 
made  the  basis  for  an  interference  with  the  political 
independence  of  China  within  that  province,  Articles 
156,  157  and  158  of  the  Treaty  of  Versailles,  relating 
to  Shantung,  would  probably  not  have  been  adopted. 
But  Japan  agreed  to  refrain  from  interference  with 
the  political  autonomy  of  the  Shantung  province,  and 
also  at  a  convenient  season  to  enter  into  negotiations 
with  China  for  a  Settlement  of  the  Kiao  Chau  situa- 
tion and  of  the  claims  to  the  economic  concessions  in 
Shantung  which  had  been  made  to  Germany.  Sufficient 
evidence  of  this  agreement  is  afforded  by  President 
Wilson's  statement  to  the  Senate  Committee  that  he 
had  an  understanding  with  the  Japanese  delegates  in 


64t  JAPAN    AND    THE    FAR    EAST    CONFERENCE 

Paris  "that  Japan  should  return  to  China  in  full  sov- 
ereignty the  old  province  of  Shantung  so  far  as  Ger- 
many had  any  claims  upon  it,  preserving  to  herself  the 
right  to  establish  a  residential  district  at  Tsing  Tau, 
which  is  the  town  of  Kiao  Chau  Bay ;  that  with  regard 
to  the  railways  and  mines  she  should  retain  only  the 
rights  of  an  economic  concession  there  with  the  right, 
however,  to  maintain  a  special  body  of  police  on  the 
railway,  the  personnel  of  which  should  be  Chinese  un- 
der Japanese  instructors  nominated  by  the  managers 
of  the  company  and  appointed  by  the  Chinese  govern- 
ment." 

Since  the  Peace  Conference,  there  has  been  ample 
evidence  of  the  willingness  of  the  Japanese  government 
to  carry  out  promptly  this  agreement.  Viscount  Uchida, 
the  Minister  of  Foreign  Affairs  of  Japan,  and  Prime 
Minister  Hara,  have  made  unequivocal  statements  that 
it  is  the  intention  of  Japan  to  make  good  the  promises 
of  their  Peace  Commissioners ;  and  the  Japanese  For- 
eign Office  has  made  repeated  efforts  to  open  negotia- 
tions with  the  Peking  government,  with  a  view  to  mak- 
ing the  complicated  arrangements  incident  to  the  with- 
drawal from  Shantung  of  Japanese  troops  which  have 
been  maintained  there,  as  the  Japanese  continue  to  as- 
sert, for  police  purposes.  What  these  difficulties  will 
be  is  foreshadowed  in  a  dispatch  from  Geneva  dated 
December  9th,  1920,  in  which  Baron  Hayashi,  the  head 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE     C5 

of  the  Japanese  delegation  to  the  Assembly  of  the 
League  of  Nations,  is  said  to  have  repeated  the  assur- 
ances given  by  the  Prime  Minister  and  the  Minister 
of  Foreign  Affairs,  and,  after  commenting  upon  the 
weakness  of  the  Chinese  government,  to  have  added: 

"We  must  settle  how  it  shall  be  open  and  what  guar- 
antees we  get  that  it  remains  so.  Just  the  other  day, 
for  instance,  one  of  the  free  ports  of  China  was  burnt 
by  mutinous  soldiers.  We  must  have  protection  against 
that.     .     .     . 

"What  they  call  public  opinion  is  often  that  of 
school  boys,  traders  and  newspapers.  It  is  often  arti- 
ficial. It  always  urges  the  Government  to  stand  firm 
and  does  not  consider  the  consequences.     .     .     . 

"I  say  it  is  difficult  for  us  to  deal  with  China.  We 
see  here  a  bright  young  man,  Wellington  Koo.  He  is 
a  nice  boy,  but  when  he  goes  home  he  has  no  power. 
The  Parliament  behind  him  has  no  power.  The  army 
is  revolting  and  half  the  fleet  has  joined  the  rebels. 
How  can  we  make  an  enduring  treaty  with  a  Govern- 
ment like  that.? 

"China  needs  a  strong  man.  We  wish  she  could  get 
one  to  set  her  in  order.  Then  we  could  negotiate  and 
give  back  Kiao  Chau,  which  we  intend  to  do,  but  first 
we  must  have  guarantees.  Who  can  give  them  to  us 
today.?" 

The  Peking  government  quite  obviously  hopes  that 


66  JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE 

the  League  of  Nations,  and  perhaps  the  coming  con- 
ference, will  enforce  some  solution  of  the  entire  ques- 
tion which  will  be  more  favorable  to  Chinese  interests 
and  more  satisfactory  to  the  Chinese  people  than  would 
have  been  possible  if  the  concessions  to  Germany  had 
remained  in  effect.  The  Chinese  delegates  to  Paris 
sought  not  only  to  curtail  Japan's  political  and  mili- 
tary control  in  Shantung  but  also  to  recover  the  prov- 
ince freed  of  all  claims  based  upon  the  concessions  to 
Germany,  as  well  as  of  all  economic  rights  claimed  by 
Japan  as  compensation  for  her  services  in  destroying 
the  German  power  in  the  East.  In  her  last  official  note 
to  China  on  the  subject,  Japan  expressed  her  willing- 
ness to  arrange  the  details  of  a  settlement  at  any  time 
that  China  might  be  ready  and  urged  China  to  expedite 
the  organization  of  a  poHce  force  on  the  Shantung 
railroad  so  that  Japan  might  safely  withdraw  her 
troops.  After  a  long  delay,  an  entirely  inconclusive 
reply  was  made  by  China,  to  the  eflPect  that  "the  people 
throughout  China  have  assumed  an  indignantly  antag- 
onistic attitude  toward  the  question.  For  these  reasons, 
and  also  in  consideration  of  the  amity  existing  between 
Japan  and  China,  the  Chinese  government  does  not  find 
itself  in  a  position  to  reply  at  this  moment."*     But  the 


*NOTE: — Since  this  book  went  to  press  the  Chinese  govern- 
ment has  informally  handed  to  the  Japanese  Minister  in  this 
comitry  a  note  which  for  the  first  time  since  the  Shantung  con- 
troversy arose,  states  China's  attitude.     (Dispatch  from  Peking, 


JAPAN    AND    THE    FAR    EAST    CONFERENCE  67 

promises  of  the  Japanese  government  have  been  so  plain 
and  unconditional,  and  have  so  pledged  the  nation  to 
the  United  States  and  to  other  nations  of  the  world, 
that  thej  amount  to  an  assurance  which  Japan  could 
not  and  would  not  withdraw.  The  influence  of  the 
United  States  at  the  coming  conference  ought  to  be 


published  in  the  New  York  Times  of  October  8,  1921.)  Hie  delay 
in  negotiating  with  Japan  is  explained  in  the  note  as  resulting 
from  the  fact  that  "the  bases  Japan  claims  to  negotiate  are  all 
of  a  nature  most  objectionable  to  the  Chinese  Government  and 
the  Chinese  people,  or  are  such  which  they  never  have  recognized. 
Furthermore,  regarding  the  Shantung  question,  although  Japan 
has  made  many  vague  declarations,  she  has  actually  had  no  plan 
which  was  fundamentally  acceptable.  Therefore  the  case  has 
pended  many  years,  much  to  China's  expectation  to  the  contrary."' 

As  to  the  most  recent  proposals  of  Japan  the  note  continues 
that  if  they  "are  to  be  regarded  as  Japan's  final  concessions,  they 
surely  inadequately  prove  the  sincerity  of  Japan's  desire  to  settle 
the  question." 

The  note  ignores  the  provisions  of  the  Versailles  Treaty,  to 
which  China  finally  became  one  of  the  signatories.  It  also  rejects 
Japan's  proposal  for  a  um'fied  railway  system  in  Shantung  and 
for  the  operation  of  the  joint  mines  appurtenant  to  the  railway. 
It  is  insisted  that  the  Japanese  army  of  occupation  should  be 
immediately  evacuated,  and  that  "China  will  immediately  send 
a  suitable  force  of  Chinese  railway  police  to"  protect  the  railway. 

The  note  concludes  as  follows: 

"Further,  in  view  of  the  marked  diiference  of  opinion  between 
the  two  countries,  and  apprehending  that  the  case  might  long 
remain  unsettled,  China  reserves  to  herself  the  freedom  of  seeking 
a  solution  of  the  question  whenever  a  Suitable  occasion  presents 
itself." 

Precisely  what  this  cryptic  statement  implies  one  can  only  con- 
jecture. China  has  not  presented  her  case  to  the  Council  of  the 
League  of  Nations,  or  attempted  to  procure  an  amendment  of 
the  Treaty  of  Versailles.  Perhaps  her  diplomacy  perceives  that 
if  the  Shantung  question  is  considered  at  the  coming  conference 
in  Washington  the  Chinese  government's  continued  refusal  to 
make  some  definite  response  to  Japan's  advances  may  prejudice 
her  case. 


08      JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE 

exerted  to  induce  China  to  enter  into  a  negotiation  for 
the  friendly  settlement  of  the  Shantung  question. 
China  can  safely  do  this  for  it  is  quite  certain  that  the 
public  opinion  of  the  world  would  not  tolerate  any  over- 
reaching by  Japan  or  any  settlement  which  would  in- 
volve an  undue  encroachment  upon  China's  sovereignty 
in  the  Shantung  Peninsula  outside  of  the  Kiao  Chau 
district.  Even  within  that  district  only  such  arrange- 
ments for  the  protection  of  Japanese  interests  will  be 
sanctioned  as  are  recognized  by  the  principal  allied 
and  associated  nations  and  the  world  as  reasonable 
under  the  circumstances.  Neither  the  Council  of  the 
League  nor  the  conference  can  act  except  by  unanimous 
vote;  and  insistence  by  China  upon  terms  unsatisfac- 
tory to  Japan  would  result  in  Japan's  negative  vote 
and  the  continuance  of  the  existing  status  in  the  Shan- 
tung Peninsula.  However  unsatisfactory  that  status 
may  be  to  China,  it  has  a  basis  of  legality  In  Articles 
156,  157  and  158,  which  make  Japan  the  legitimate 
successor  of  Germany  in  the  peninsula.  It  is  to  be 
hoped  that  neither  the  Council  nor  the  conference  may 
have  to  act  (or  refuse  to  act),  but  that  an  arrange- 
ment satisfactory  to  the  delegates  of  both  China  and 
Japan  may  be  arrived  at,  and  that  the  unanimous  judg- 
ment of  the  Council  of  the  League,  or  of  the  coming 
conference,  based  on  such  arrangement,  may  enable  the 
Peking  government  to  obtain  approval  in  China  which 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAB-  EAST  CONFERENCE     69 

would  be  withheld  from  any  agreement  made  by  the 
impotent  Peking  government  as  a  result  of  an  ordin- 
ary diplomatic  negotiation  with  Japan.  But  if  the 
Chinese  delegates,  against  the  protest  of  Japan,  at- 
tempt to  obtain  support  for  China  in  repudiating  the 
succession  of  Japan  to  the  rights  of  Germany,  under 
Articles  156,  157  and  158  of  the  Versailles  Treaty  of 
Peace,  and  the  several  agreements  made  between  China 
and  Japan  during  the  war,  on  the  ground  that  they 
were  exacted  from  China  by  coercion,  because  China 
was  powerless  to  defend  herself  against  a  possible  in- 
vasion through  Siberia,  and  Japan  was  the  only  nation 
in  the  East  which  could  successfully  destroy  German 
power  in  Shantung  and  on  the  seas,  a  field  of  contro- 
versy will  be  opened  up  the  consequences  of  which  no 
man  can  predict.  Such  an  attitude  on  the  part  of 
China,  if  supported  by  the  League  or  the  conference, 
would  necessarily  require  the  nations  especially  inter- 
ested in  Oriental  affairs  to  inaugurate  some  kind  of 
an  effective  policy  by  which  the  solidarity  of  Chinese 
territory  and  the  independence  of  its  government  should 
be  maintained.  That  would  involve  an  intervention 
which  would  be  a  grave  undertaking. 

But  China  is  patient.  It  has  certain  weapons  which 
it  can  use  effectively.  Passive  resistance  with  the 
Chinaman  is  a  spontaneous  art.  A  commercial  boy- 
cott is  even  now  being  used  with  great  effect  as  a  re- 


70      JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE 

prisal  for  the  action  of  Japan  in  proposing  the  twenty- 
one  articles  and  retaining  its  hold  upon  the  Shantung- 
Peninsula.  The  strength  of  such  a  weapon  as  this 
cannot  be  ignored;  and  the  spirit  and  enthusiasm  and 
patriotism  of  the  enlightened  Chinaman  must  also  have 
their  effect.  But  can  all  these  forces  be  marshalled  in 
time  to  avoid  the  pressure  of  Japanese  civilization  and 
the  resulting  disintegration  of  China.''  A  solution  by 
the  conference  of  this  question  will  not  be  found  un- 
less it  deals  with  Oriental,  and  especially  with  Japan- 
ese, affairs,  with  a  sympathetic  view  of  the  national 
necessities  created  by  the  growth  of  Japan's  popula- 
tion, and  with  an  intelligent  conception  of  her  national 
aspirations ;  and  closer  attention  must  be  continuously 
given  to  the  conditions  which  from  time  to  time  exist 
in  the  Orient  than  has  been  possible  in  the  past. 


THE  IMPROBABILITY  OF  WAR 

Unfortunately,  there  is  an  appreciable  number  of 
Americans  both  in  this  country  and  in  Japan  who  be- 
lieve that  war  between  the  two  countries  is  inevitable, 
and  they  point  to  certain  preparations  in  Japan  as 
indicating  an  aggressive  policy  on  her  part.  But  such 
investigation  of  these  matters  as  I  was  able  to  make 
lead  me  to  the  conclusion  that  the  preparations  referred 
to  were  defensive  in  character  and  were  no  more  elab- 
orate than  the  exposed  position  of  Japan  in  the  Pacific 
Ocean  made  reasonably  necessary.  There  is  no  party 
in  Japan  which,  from  the  standpoint  either  of  inclina- 
tion or  of  national  policy,  seriously  contemplates  war 
with  America.  All  organized  political  parties  seem  to 
agree  that  the  cultivation  of  cordial  relations  with  this 
country  is  the  best  public  policy  for  Japan.  In  this 
connection  the  words  of  Mr.  Roosevelt  uttered  in  July, 
1918,  come  back  to  me.     He  said: 

"Japan  is  playing  a  great  part  in  the  civilized 
world ;  a  good  understanding  between  her  and  the 
the  United  States  is  essential  to  the  international 
progress,  and  it  is  a  grave  offense  against  the 
United  States  for  any  man  by  word  or  deed  to 
jeopardize  this  good  understanding." 

71 


72      JAPAN  AND  THE  FAB,  EAST  CONFEEENCE 

Japan  is  becoming  more  and  more  a  democratic  na- 
tion. The  manhood  franchise  has  been  greatly  extend- 
ed. The  interest  of  the  people  in  public  affairs  is  ob- 
vious to  even  a  casual  observer.  On  May  11th,  1920,  I 
was  a  witness  to  a  manifestation  of  such  interest  in 
Kobe,  which  I  have  already  referred  to.  In  perhaps 
a  dozen  places  in  that  city  I  saw  crowds  obstructing 
the  streets  where  bulletin  boards  were  displayed  show- 
ing the  returns  of  the  election  the  day  before  to  the 
Diet — the  lower  house  of  the  National  legislature. 
Such  political  consciousness  as  this  indicates  is  reflected 
in  the  Japanese  press  whose  wide  circulation  shows  a 
demand  for  detailed  news  items  and  such  free  comment 
upon  public  affairs  as  fill  their  columns.  It  is  not 
improbable  that  the  mass  of  the  people  are  taking  a 
growing  interest  in  politics  as  they  are  in  industrial 
affairs;  and  as  95  per  cent,  of  them  are  literate  it  is 
not  probable  that  this  interest  will  abate.  Now,  the 
common  people  of  Japan  do  not  want  war.  They  are 
intensely  occupied  with  their  internal  affairs ;  and  I 
am  satisfied  that  this  attitude  will  go  far  to  neutralize 
the  belligerent  feeling  that  may  exist  among  those  who 
still  adhere  to  the  militaristic  policy,  and  particularly 
the  young  and  enthusiastic  army  and  navy  officers  look- 
ing for  a  career. 

The  fact,  already  alluded  to,  that  under  the  Japan- 
ese form  of  government  the  ministers  of  war  and  of 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAE  EAST  CONFERENCE     73 

the  navy  are  not  removable  as  a  result  of  changes  of 
political  administration,  and  are  thus  to  some  extent 
beyond  the  reach  of  public  opinion,  will  not  probably 
long  prevent  the  evolution  of  a  liberal  policy  under 
which  the  militaristic  influences  in  governmental  ad- 
ministration will  be  gradually  diminished.  This  will 
also  naturally  curb  imperialistic  ambition  for  the  ac- 
quisition of  territory,  particularly  on  the  Asiatic  con- 
tinent. 


NECESSITY  FOR  TERRITORIAL  EXPANSION 

But  all  this  is  not  to  say  that  Japan  will  not  some 
time  extend  her  territorial  possessions,  if  that  becomes 
necessary  to  satisfy  her  national  needs,  particularly  in 
feeding  and  clothing  her  people  and  in  obtaining  raw 
materials  which  are  required  in  her  essential  industries. 
If  China,  America  and  the  western  powers  who  have  an 
interest  in  Oriental  affairs,  refuse  to  recognize  these 
needs,  Japan  will,  despite  all  objections,  be  driven  to 
supplying  them.  The  most  ordinary  considerations 
of  prudence  require  that  she  should  protect  her  people 
against  the  evils  of  overcrowding  her  already  densely 
populated  islands.  That  she  wishes  to  accomplish  that 
result  by  dismembering  China  is  by  no  means  clear, 
but  that  she  seeks  to  obtain  an  economic  foothold  in 
Manchuria,  Mongolia,  Shantung  and  perhaps  Siberia, 
as  a  means  of  procuring  raw  materials,  and  that  she 
will  encourage  her  people  to  emigrate  to  those  coun- 
tries, is  not  only  probable  but  seemingly  justifiable. 
If  this  aspect  of  the  situation  is  dealt  with  by  the  com- 
ing conference  sympathetically  from  the  viewpoint  of 
Japan's  national  necessities,  a  settlement  of  pending 
Asiatic  questions  will  become  more  simple,  particularly 
as  never  before  has  Japan  been  so  sensitive  to  adverse 

74 


JAPAN  AND  THE  FAR  EAST  CONFERENCE      75 

criticism  of  her  imperialistic  tendencies  as  she  is  now. 
The  friendly  intervention  of  America  in  these  matters 
would  not  be  resented ;  and  we  occupy  a  position  which 
would  enable  us  by  intervening  to  be  of  substantial 
service  to  civilization  in  eHminating  possible  causes  of 
international  trouble  in  the  Orient. 


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